Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Let Them Preach: Week 5


by: Christian Hardy

Week five has breezed right by us and it certainly didn’t live up to my expectations; but hey, it was football, and football is good. I mean, there was Tebow tantrum in Denver,  a Jackson explosion in Buffalo, and a Buccaneers implosion. Sounds like it was a pretty good week, but it was no Week 4, or even Week 3 for that matter. Enough of this, let’s get to the good stuff: all of the things I learned in week five of the 2011 NFL season.

Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers
1. The Steelers know how to play at home: they have won five of their last six home games. The Terrible Towel really is terrible, for their opponents.
2. Hines Ward! Heath Miller! Fantasy zombies! The two of these guys had three touchdowns combined in Sunday’s game against the Titans? Do I buy it? Half way. I think Heath Miller (one touchdown on three receptions) deserves a roster spot, but I need to see more from Hines Ward (two touchdowns along with seven catches).
3. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Jonathan Dwyer steals the number two spot in Pittsburgh when Mendenhall and Redman are healthy. He was extremely explosive on Sunday (11 for 107) and he burst through the holes like Adrian Peterson (did I take that too far? Oh well.). Of course, Dwyer's 76 yard run helped his stats, but hey, that's what happens when you find and then burst through the hole.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills
1. The Eagles have one of the best wide receiver corps in the National Football League: Jackson is the big play guy that is going to take the safety deep, Jeremy Maclin is the dependable guy that can also run the sidelines, and Avant is the possession receiver who is going to stay in the middle of the field. 
2. Fred Jackson isn't a fluke. He is running like a mad man right now (3rd in the league) and who would of expected this. The Bills offense is at it's peak, and I'm honestly wondering who can stop them right now. Only time will tell.
3. The Lions aren't the "Dream Team"; only the 2008 Lions would dream of being 1-4. 

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
1. At this point. Darren Sproles is one of the best running backs to have on your fantasy team. Consistency is everything at this point in the season, and consistency is Darren Sproles. He has put up nine points or more in every game this season: it doesn't get more consistent than that. Sproles is a must start in all formats right now.
2. While Sproles has been showing up, Jimmy Graham, one of my favorite stories in football, is doing it through the air. He is the top fantasy tight end right now, and who didn't see this coming? He was everyone's fantasy sleeper (including me).
3. The Panthers are legit, but they have to learn to play all four quarters. They can't start slow or finish the game sloppy on either side of the ball. Despite only one check in the "win" column, I think the Panthers are going to compete this year, but I don' think they climb back over .500.

Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans
1. Darrius Heyward-Bey really made Al Davis look good, as he went for seven catches, 99 yards and a touch: not too shabby. While others aren't jumping on the bandwagon, I am on, and I have been on for the ride. I picked this guy up in multiple leagues in week one, and he is still doing. Pick up Darrius Heyward-Bey while you still can.
2. I was way of with my Matt Schaub, and I greatly over-estimated the Raiders pass defense. Schaub is going to do it with or without Andre Johnson.
3. Everyone was asking the question, "Who is going to replace Andre Johnson?" The only two people that I know were right were The Fantasy Football Guys and this guy. It was Kevin Walter; not Owen Daniels (he had a good game here too), not Jacoby Jones; just Kevin Walter on his way to a 15 point fantasy day.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts
I'm Baaack!
1. Todd Haley is a man of his word, that is for sure. After saying earlier in the week that Jackie Battle would get more work for the Chiefs, he got 19 carries and ran with it for 119 yards, which was half of the team's carries. Sounds like a good pick up to me, and it also sounds like time to drop Dexter McCluster.
2. Like I have said in weeks past, Dwayne Bowe, even with the Chiefs' struggles, is going to perform on a week to week basis. He is a touchdown machine again this year (call him "Bumblebee") with four touchdowns in the last four games. How impressive is that? Now let's take this a step further: do you selll high on Dwayne Bowe? I am selling high for the right price. He has played two very weak pass defenses, and when Matt Cassel gets into a tougher matchup, he is going to struggle. If I own Dwayne Bowe, I am selling high.
 3. I was right! Pierre Garcon is this master athlete! Him and Curtis Painter are hooking up non-stop during the game. It is almost unbelievable. Every time Painter completes a pass I feel like there is a number 85 on his back, and I'm not talking about Ochocinco. Whatever you have to do, go get Pierre Garcon this week if he is available. With all of that, Austin Collie is a drop, and to be honest, Dallas Clark is a drop too: I approve of both of those moves, but drop Clark with cation.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars
1. AJ Green continues to be Andy Dalton's favorite targets, but Jermaine Gresham is the one who stood out to me. Gresham now has a touchdown in each of his last two games, as well as another touchdown in week one.
2. My Cedric Benson love didn't pay off, and he did very little with his carries (24 for 53). The Jaguars front is better than most people think, but if these running backs can get in the open they are going to have a huge run. Unfortunately, Cedric Benson never got that, and he finished with a very disappointing game, especially for me who was so high on him.
3. Although I hate to admit it, the Bengals defense is quite potent.They have only allowed more than 300 yards of total offense to their opponent one time this year (Broncos, 318 yards).

Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings
1. The Vikings can play in the second half! They just need 28 points in the first quarter to do it!
2. Emerging from those 28 points was Adrian Peterson: he is a man. Peterson scored three (yes, three) touchdowns in one quarter. I think he quieted all of his haters for now.
3. Kevin Kolb is in the gutters right now. He has hit an all-time low, and he isn't getting anything done; you can feel free to drop him from your fantasy team at any time. The Cardinals are really resorting to Beanie Wells and the run game and since week one, Kevin Kolb has looked absolutely terrible. In the last three weeks combined his has 20 fantasy points combined. There are 31 quarterbacks I would rather have than Kevin Kolb at this point.


Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants
1. Doug Baldwin isn't going away. The Seahawks' quarterbacks seem to love to throw this guy, and they continue to find him. In this game he went for 136 on eight catches and a touchdown.
2. There is not doubt that Victor Cruz has replaced Mario Manningham, just like I thought he would. The Giants and Eli Manning have made it very clear that Cruz is the guy.
3. As Matthew Berry and I have preached and preached on, the Seahawks run defense is better than most people think, and it was seen here against Ahmad Bradshaw who should of has a great game with Jacobs out. Bradshaw did everything but that with only 2.8 yards per carry in this game, and he finished with a mediocre game.
 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers
1. Alex Smith is playing top notch right now. He continues to put up above-par fantasy numbers, and in this game he continued that streak as he went 11/19 with 170 yards and three touchdowns--yes, Alex Smith. He is the reason that the Niners are winning at this point. Smith continues to take care of the ball: he has only thrown one interception this year, and that was his only turnover of this year.
2. Frank Gore, when he gets those legs churning, is one of the most brilliant running backs in the NFL. He is one of the most dynamic backs; he is agile, yet he can still truck over defenders. He is a great pass blocker, but he can also catch a ball or two in the flat. Even with all of the injuries he has had, he is still an elite running back, and a dynamic one at that.
3. Even though I already knew this, I thought I would mention that the 49ers have a more than impressive run defense. They continue to shut guys down, and in this game the held the red hot LeGarrette Blount to only 3.4 yards per carry, and they have allowed only 3.6 yards per 
carry on the year. 

San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos
1.How do you have 40% completion percentage (4 0f 10 complete) and still have a passer rating of over 100? You have to be the biggest, the baddest, you have to be the Tim Tebow. When Orton had nothing going for him, Tebow stepped up and took advantage of his opportunity. Enough said: Tebow is my pickup the week, considering that he can run the ball and he is probably going to be the Broncos' new goal line back.
2. Even before Mike Tolbert's in this game, we all knew who the head guy in the backfield for the Chargers is: that'd be Ryan Matthews. He is running as good as any other back in the NFL right now and he ran the ball 24 time (!) for 125 yards but he did not find the endzone. I really like Matthews going forward, and love him from a dynasty league standpoint.
3. McGahee is the guy in Denver, and Moreno is absolutely non-existent in the run game. He had no carries in this game, and only two carries in his last two. The only reason he deserves a roster spot right now is because he found the endzone in this game. If he disappears next game too, then you might as well free up a roster spot.


New York Jets @ New England Patriots
1. BenJarvus Green-Ellis appears to be the guy; he had 27 carries in this one, and he has been getting the majority of the carries. Ridley is definitely still worth a roster spot, but right now he is just a handcuff, and nothing more. 
2. I have said this before, but Ladanian Tomlinson is completely non-existant. Shonn Greene has taken over the role as the runningback with 21 carries in this game. The best you are going to get out of Ladanian Tomlinson is abround 50 receiving yards and maybe 50 yards rushing, but it is very possible that he could explode at any given time, just a heads up.
3. You know that Wes Welker guy? Yeah, he is kinda good. I mean, he's the only fugitive of "Revis Island", he has to be a beast. But realistically speaking: Welker is poised for the most receptions and yards ever in a single season by a wide receiver. What do you have to say about his knee now?
Well Done Sir!


Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
1. There is not one running back you want on your fantasy team from the Packers. Neither James Starks or Ryan Grant is getting enough work to really have an impact. For each of them you are banking on a touchdown, but Mr.Rodgers takes care of that.
2. James Jones! Another fantasy zombie! He was finally revived after getting seven targets and five of them coming as catches, including a 70 yard bomb for a touchdown. Not that he has any huge value yet, but keep your eye on this guy.
3. I don't put any value in this game for Julio Jones. He injured the hamstring late, and he has had two huge games before this. I don't think this means anything for Julio Jones, sometimes you just have one of those games.


Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
1. Calvin Johnson is a machine! Nine touchdowns in five games!? That is the most any receiver in the history of the NFL has scored in that span! It's absolutely incredible, and if you have Calvin Johnson on your fantasy team then I'm sure you are doing well.
2. Like I said last week, when Matt Forte gets the touches he deserves he is going to take them and run with them. In this game he had 22 carries for 116 yards. In his last two games, Matt Forte has averaged 6.83 yards per carry. That's how you run the football. And he wasn't playing just any run defense..he has had to run against the Panthers and the Lions: two decent run defenses. That only makes it more impressive.
3. Jahvid Best isn't the kind of running back you want on your fantasy lineup. He can easily drop a huge goose egg, or he can explode that one time that you decide to put him on your bench. His average yards per carry was just over three before the 88 yard touchdown run. I know you have to include the huge run into his average, but he isn't going to do that every game and that means that you are really depending on that touchedown.

Those would be the review of every game this week, all thirteen of them. This season couldn't get much better, it has truly been one of the most exciting and odd seasons since I have ever seen this sport. Don't forget to follow me on twitter (@TheFFAddict) and every question I get from my followers I will reply to. If you don't have a twitter or your question is longer, then you can email me. Once again, thank you for reading and I will see you again next week.

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