Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Week 10 Let Them Preach


By: Christian Hardy


Week 10 showed us exactly what the NFL is all about: Absolute tomfoolery.

In the early games, arch rivals Saints and Falcons faced off in Georgia with the division lead on the line, and boy was it a good one. It tailed all the way into overtime, which including a scrutinized decision from Falcons' head coach Mike Smith. Then the Cowboys won their second straight game, and this game against the Bills was never close. We saw another division game in the early games, and this one was a great one too. It was the Bengals against the Steelers, and if the Bengals could win this one then they would finish the weekend two games ahead of the division. Who would of thought that the Bengals would be in the discussion to win the division. Then last, and probably least, the Eagles collapsed against John Skelton and the Cardinals.

The late games were an even bigger shock thought. The Seahawks (huh?) defeated the unpredictable Ravens, in the same stadium where they upset the Saints in last year's playoffs. Then, the Bears clobbered the skidding Lions at Soldier Field. Two out of three games unpredictable? That ruined a lot of people's picks this Sunday.

It was a great weekend for football, and now I'm here to wrap it all up. As you can see, I summarized the picks from all of our contributors. Taylor's picks have no score because, well, he gave me no score. The record before the predicted score is the record of that person on this week, including the game that it is under. I decided not to talk about the games that do not matter, because, honestly, it is the same stuff every week with those couple of teams. With all of that said, let's move on to the games.


Oakland Raiders @  San Diego Chargers
1. Michael Bush could start to get more carries, even when Darren McFadden returns. While gurus were voyaging for a sleeper running back name, such as Taiwan Jones, the guy who really shined was the guy right in front of Jones, Michael Bush. Bush, subbing in for Darren McFadden, went completely berserk with 242 total yards and a touchdown. Bush has now averaged over five yards per carry in three straight games, including 5.2 yards per carry in this game on 30 (!) carries. If McFadden is out in the future, then Bush is a must start.

2. Vincent Jackson is the biggest "Whack-A-Mole" in the history of whack-a-moles. One week, the Chargers roll and Jackson puts up 32 fantasy points in a standard league, and the next week he has one catch for 22 years. I don't know what to think of this guy, but in my eye, he isn't even a top 15 wide receiver. Philip Rivers has too many targets that he can throw the ball to, and while that might help some receivers, it is hurting Jackson, and hurting him badly. Next time you get the chance, I would sell high on Vincent Jackson.

3. At this point, if you have a decent backup, it's time to let Philip Rivers ride the pine for your fantasy team. In eight of his nine games this year, Rivers has finished outside of the top ten fantasy quarterbacks. If you think you have a starter in him, then you are dead wrong. He now has just one game over 20 points, three games over 300 yards, and one game with less than two turnovers. He is an absolute turnover machine, and I don't see it getting better in the near future. His upcoming schedule is; at Chicago, who just forced six turnovers against the Lions; then he is against Denver, who has been getting better, and at Jacksonville where he could finally break out. If you are looking for Rivers to be a top 10 quarterback for you, chances are it isn't going to happen. Not this year at least.

(0-1) Christian's Pick: Chargers
(0-1) Gabe's Pick: Chargers
(0-1) Zach's Pick: Chargers
(0-1) Taylor's Pick: Chargers
Final Score: Raiders 24, Chargers 17

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
1. There isn't any Saints' running back that is getting the carries to be in your lineup on a week to week basis.  For Darren Sproles, you have to solely depend that he is going to be involved in the pass game, or he can break a big gain from the flat. In this game, the Falcons had Sproles' number all day. For Mark Ingram, you are depending on a touchdown, and it's not even a sure thing that he is going to be in the backfield in a certain goal line package. Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory are both just long shots for me; Ivory is still fighting an injury, and Thomas isn't getting the type of workload that is going to produce. For now, I think it is safe to keep all of these guys on your bench, except for the the possibility of Sproles in a flex spot.

2. Harry Douglas!? Seriously? Eight catches and over 100 yards?! I mean, I know that Julio Jones left with an injury, but who would of thought that Douglas would be the one who took over. In truth, and all seriousness, Matt Ryan played a great game. He finished the game with over 350 yards and two touchdowns (one to Gonzalez and one to Snelling), although he did not show up when it mattered most. I wouldn't be surprised if, after a game like that, Douglas gets a little bit more work in this offense.

3. This is one of the best games to watch every time these teams play. The two quarterbacks are some of the best in the game, and they are very fun to watch. Each of the last six games have been decided by 10 points or less, and the last four have been decided by just a field goal, two of which went to overtime. Drew Brees versus Matt Ryan is always going to be great, and I'm looking forward to seeing them face off again in week 16 on Monday Night Football.

(1-1) Christian's Pick: Saints 27, Falcons 24 (OT)
(0-2) Gabe's Pick: Falcons 27, Saints 24
(0-2) Zach's Pick: Falcons 35, Saints 31
(1-1)Taylor's Pick: Saints
Final Score: Saints 26, Falcons 23 (OT)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
1. The Steelers are a perfect example of why fantasy football is a major product of luck. Rashard Mendenhall had 16 chances to run the ball in this game. He finished the game with a 2.8 yards per carry average, but luck(ily), Mendy found the end zone twice, and it paid off for fantasy owners. Then, in the passing game, the one passing touchdown goes to Jerricho Cotchery who is the fourth receiver (with Sanders out) on this team. I'm not saying it is unpredictable, I am just saying that at times fantasy football is very lucky and some of the most unlikely things can happen. Maybe that is the fun of things though, because if someone could predict everything, every Sunday, then there would be no fun in the game. That's what makes fantasy football so great; the guess and luck factors and the chance that a winless team can win on any given weekend (unless you are the Colts, of course).

2. Even if he did only have one catch, AJ Green is an every week start (when healthy, obviously). He now has six touchdowns and double digit fantasy points in every game but one. This game he has a stunning touchdown catch in triple coverage. Andy Dalton loves a guy that can go and get the ball, and AJ Green does just that. I sat him this week (in favor of Jeremy Maclin, I know.) in my main league and it could easily cost me the game. Trust me, I will never sit him again, and neither should you.

3. The Steelers are going to continue to increase the amount of snaps that Antonio Brown gets, and it is well deserved. Although he is not a big red zone target, he is going to become a great fantasy play as a wide receiver two on a team that has a very balanced offense. With Emmanuel Sanders now out for a couple weeks, and Hines Ward being benched for Jerricho Cotchery, Brown is going to become the number two wide out for this team with no competition, and with the talent he has, the possibilities are endless. He is going to become the possession receiver that plays opposite of Mike Wallace, and Big Ben is going to throw to him, a lot.

(1-2) Christian's Pick: Bengals 24, Steelers 20
(0-3) Gabe's Pick: Bengals 20, Steelers 17
(1-2) Zach's Pick: Steelers 17, Sengals 13
(1-2) Taylor's Pick: Bengals
Final Score: Steelers 24, Bengals 17

Buffalo Bills @ Dallas Cowboys
1. Tony Romo is at the peak of his game right now, and he is hitting it right at the right time. With DeMarco Murray in the backfield, Romo looks much more comfortable. To go along with the run game, his offensive line is giving him a nice pocket and he isn't getting hit: He has been hit only three times and has been sacked zero times in the last two games. Tony Romo is taking care of the ball and making smart decisions. As long as the defense and DeMarco Murray hold up, they could go a long ways.

2. Laurent Robinson is the Cowboys wide receiver that I would rather have right now. In his last three games these are his numbers: 13 receptions, 208 yards, and four touchdowns, including two against the Bills on Sunday. What about Dez Bryant? Well, while Dez sees tougher coverage, his numbers have not even compared to those of Robinson's. Dez has the same amount of receptions as Robinson (13), but 30 less yards, and only one touchdown in his last three games. Dez Bryant is always going to be a must start, but believe it or not, I think that Robinson is the guy who is going to score more fantasy points, as long as Miles Austin is gone.

(2-2) Christian's Pick: Cowboys 31, Bills 27
(1-3) Gabe's Pick: Cowboys 34, Bills 31
(2-2) Zach's Pick: Cowboys 24, Bills 21
(1-3) Taylor's Pick: Bills
Final Score: Cowboys 44, Bills 7

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
(2-3) Christian's Pick: Colts 20, Jaguars 14
(2-3) Gabe's Pick: Jaguars 13, Colts 10
(3-2) Zach's Pick: Jaguars 14, Colts 10
(2-3) Taylor's Pick: Jaguars
Final Score: Jaguars 17, Colts 3

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
(2-4) Christian's Pick: Chiefs 24, Broncos 21
(3-3) Gabe's Pick: Broncos 24, Chiefs 23
(4-2) Zach's Pick: Broncos 20, Chiefs 14
(2-4) Taylor's Pick: Chiefs
Final Score: Broncos 17, Chiefs 10

Washington Redskins @ Miami Dolphins
(3-4) Christian's Pick: Dolphins 17, Redskins 13
(4-3) Gabe's Pick: Dolphins 21, Redskins 14
(5-2) Zach's Pick: Dolphins 13, Redskins 13
(3-4) Taylor's Pick: Dolphins
Final Score: Dolphins 20, Redskins 9

Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles
1. The Eagles are one of the most over-hyped teams that I remember in the history of sports. That's all I really have to talk about for this game. John Skelton had a great game, but who doesn't against this Eagles' defense? It is terrible. The Eagles are terrible, and nothing is going the right way for them right now. Michael Vick has injured ribs, Jeremy Maclin has a sore shoulder and hamstring, Desean Jackson doesn't have any money, and therefore has an attitude problem, and on the defense, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is fighting through ankle injuries. This team is bad, and I don't see it turning around any time soon. Their next two games are against the Giants in the Meadowlands and then against the Giants.


(3-5) Christian's Pick: Eagles 31, Cardinals 13
(4-4) Gabe's Pick: Eagles 31, Cardinals 20
(5-3) Zach's Pick: Eagles 35, Cardinals 17
(4-4) Taylor's Pick: Eagles
Final Score: Cardinals 21, Eagles 17

Houston Texans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1. Right when the Texans were on the brink of their first AFC South championship, everything went terribly wrong. Their quarterback Matt Schaub hurt his Lisfranc joint in his foot, and it will require surgery. The surgery will cause him to miss the remainder of the season. It's a huge blow for the Texans, and might even give the Titans a chance to win this division, who are now at a 5-4 record. I expect Arian Foster and Ben Tate to take a huge load after the bye week, so both of their stocks will rise. I would drop Andre Johnson to the bottom half of number one receivers, but he is still one of the most athletic receivers in the NFL and Matt Leinart should have no problem finding him.

2. Preston Parker proved why is the only receiver worth owning on the Bucs. He scores points. Only seventeen yards in this one, but he found a way to get into the end zone. That's what counts, and that is something that Mike Williams has done only once all year. Parker isn't startable (none of them are), but he is certainly worth a roster spot, unlike Arrelious Benn or Mike Williams.

(4-5) Christian's Pick: Texans 20, Buccaneers 16
(5-4) Gabe's Pick: Texans 27, Buccaneers 17
(6-3) Zach's Pick: Texans 27, Buccaneers 21
(5-4) Taylor's Pick: Texans
Final Score: Texans 27, Buccaneers 9

Tennessee Titans @ Carolina Panthers
(4-6) Christian's Pick: Panthers 27, Titans 13
(5-5) Gabe's Pick: Panthers 24, Titans 21
(6-4) Zach's Pick: Panthers 24, Titans 17
(5-5) Taylor's Pick: Panthers
Final Score: Titans 30, Panthers 3

Baltimore Ravens @ Seattle Seahawks
(4-7) Christian's Pick: Ravens 27, Seahawks 13
(5-6) Gabe's Pick: Ravens 24, Seahawks 10
(6-5) Zach's Pick: Ravens 31, Seahawks 10
(5-6) Taylor's Pick: Ravens
Final Score: Seahawks 22, Ravens 17

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
1. This is probably very apparent, but the Lions are not what they were when the season started. Their defense is crumbling up front, and their safety play is very soft, and we all know how one on one works. Not to mention the offense, which seems to rely on the production of Calvin Johnson. Without Jahvid Best and the run game to rely on, their entire offense, including Matthew Stafford, has fallen apart. Their receivers, other than Megatron, are not made to play 40+ snaps a game, so if a defense can find a way to double cover Calvin Johnson then it is game over. Stafford has become inaccurate, and he is making bogus throws and decisions. I really hope this Lions team can turn it around, I really do; it has been a great story. But if they don't start becoming more disciplined real soon, then it could get ugly, real soon.

2. Brandon Pettigrew? 77 yards in his last three games? Please, feel free to hit that "drop" button.

3. Bennett is definitely the top guy for Jay Cutler as of now (and that could change at any time, hence the "now"). Of the 19 times that Jay Cutler threw the ball on Sunday, nearly a third of them (six) were flying Bennett's way. Of the 123 passing yards that Cutler threw for, nearly two-thirds (81) of them were to Bennett. His nine completions? Six of them to Bennett. Bennett is definitely a great flex play from here on out, or until this stops. The Bears have the third weakest strength of schedule, in terms of fantasy points allowed to wide receivers with only Atlanta and Tampa Bay allowing less than 20 fantasy points to wide receivers. Bennett should definitely be on a roster, and maybe even in your lineup.


(4-8) Christian's Pick: Lions 24, Bears 20
(5-7) Gabe's Pick: Loins 27, Bears 24
(6-6) Zach's Pick: Lions 27, Bears 24
(5-7) Taylor's Pick: Lions
Final Score: Bears 37, Lions 13

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
1. Before we start the actual review of this game, I just wanted to say that both of these teams are very good, there is no doubt about that/ Yeah, the Giants didn't pull out the win, but they are still right on top of the division, and the 49ers have the second best record in the NFL. Does that tell you anything? Both teams have solid defenses, but the edge goes to the 49ers in this one. The offense battle could of been much more interesting had both teams' starting running backs been able to play in this game (and in Frank Gore's case, play the whole game). Look for either of these teams to make a long run into the playoffs if they keep this up.

2. No 49ers wide receiver really stands out to me, and I think you can drop all of them. Michael Crabtree was exciting for a while, but with Braylon Edwards back in these last three games, the only bright spot has been his touchdown in week eight. In the pas two weeks, he has just 72 yards and no touchdown. If Edwards is stealing looks, then you figure he is faring well, right? Wrong. He has just 119 yards in his last three games back from his knee injury. Neither of these guys is worth a roster spot right now, I would rather have someone with more upside.

3. We are more than halfway through the NFL season and the 49ers have still not allowed a rushing touchdown. Let's keep this real simple. If you have a running back that is going up against the 49ers (unless they are elite), then you have to sit them. Stats through nine weeks don't lie. If they don't let up touchdowns then they are not going to let up touchdowns. Simple as that.

(5-8) Christian's Pick: 49ers 20, Giants 17
(6-7) Gabe's Pick: 49ers 20, Giants 17
(7-6) Zach's Pick: 49ers 14, Giants 10
(5-8) Taylor's Pick: Giants
Final Score: 49ers 27, Giants 20

St.Louis Rams @ Cleveland Browns
(6-8) Christian's Pick: Rams 20, Browns 13
(7-7) Gabe's Pick: Rams 24, Browns 17
(7-7) Zach's Pick: Browns 23, Rams 13
(6-8) Taylor's Pick: Rams
Final Score: Rams 13, Browns 12

New England Patriots @ New York Jets
1. Doesn't this game just get better and better every time Rex Ryan opens his mouth? It seems like every time Rex opens his mouth, he loses! This one at home against a Patriots team that has been ailing as of late. It's great to watch this Jets team season after season, and even better when you have Rex Ryan as your head coach!

2. Mark Sanchez can not perform under pressure. It's Sunday Night Football. Huge divisional game..no, not that kind of pressure. I mean, when his pocket collapses he makes bad decisions, sometimes he make the worst decision: To take a sack. Sanchez has shown some great signs of life this year, but that is one thing he needs to get better at, and it is one of the hardest things to teach an NFL quarterback. He has to know when to escape the pocket, when to get rid of the ball, and when to his his receiver. It's a split second decision, and some quarterbacks just don't have that. See: Tebow, Tim for all of your failing at pocket presence needs.

3. Plaxico Burress is now a must start until otherwise notified. He now has four touchdowns in three games, and an average of four receptions in each of those games. He is surely worth a flex spot every week because of the upside, but he is starting to slip into the starting wide receiver category. Keep and eye on Plaxico as he has some real juicy matchups coming up soon.

(6-9) Christian's Pick: Jets 24, Patriots 10
(8-7) Gabe's Pick: Patriots 28, Jets 24
(7-8) Zach's Pick: Jets 24, Patriots 20
(6-9) Taylor's Pick: Jets
Final Score: Patriots 37, Jets 16

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
(7-9) Christian's Pick: Packers 38, Vikings 24
(9-7) Gabe's Pick: Packers 38, Vikings 27
(8-8) Zach's Pick: Packers 41, Vikings 20
(7-9) Taylor's Pick: Packers
Final Score: Packers 45, Vikings 7

Thanks for reading. Tomorrow my week 11 rankings will come out on my website (TheFFAddict.com), with four teams on bye coming into the week. Thursday or Friday will bring my Bank/Tank. Until then, you can check me out on Twitter for all your fantasy news and questions, or you can email me your longer questions.

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Second Half Sleepers

By: Zach Jacobson

It's a refreshing time--mid-fall, that is. The leaves have fallen, there's a crisp scent in the air, and the NFL season is in full swing. Let's not forget to mention that mine and Matt's Green Bay Packers (yes I said it, you didn't hear that we own them now?) are a league-leading 8-0. I'm sorry lifelong Bears fan, did that hurt you? Disgruntled Ditka lovers aside, the upcoming weeks of fantasy football will be teeming with lesser-name players breaking out, and it's my job to help you strike gold.

The Names

Laurent Robinson, DAL: 2010's dud is 2011's stud. This website didn't exist in the 2010 preseason, but if it did, you woulda' seen me touting Robinson like crazy. And boy, I couldn't have been more wrong about the 26 year old receiver. With last year's failure in mind, I'm hoping these next few weeks will make up for it. If you haven't heard, Miles Austin will be missing his fair share of time with a hamstring injury. That puts Robinson in the #2 slot with Dez Bryant in the #1, and guess who's gonna be open a lot when Bryant is double covered? Robinson has 2 touchdowns in as many games, so pick him up quickly, because he'll soon be a hot fantasy commodity.

Vincent Brown, SD: Had you even heard of Brown before last week? If your answer was yes, then I guess there's a decent chance that you're lying. Well my non-paying job here at ReclinerQB.com had me doing research on him early on, and my stance on him since August hasn't changed--eventually this rookie wide receiver should be owned in most fantasy leagues. Let's be honest, Patrick Crayton isn't lighting up the field, and given the choice between the mediocre 32 year old and the young guy with upside the Chargers won't go with the veteran. Brown shined with Malcom Floyd not playing Sunday, and with Floyd ruled out again against the Raiders, he could have another nice game. I'm not saying he's a 2011 stud, but a couple more 70+ yard games with a TD thrown in here and there and you've got yourself a decent play.

Brandon Marshall, MIA: "But Zach, Brandon Marshall isn't a sleeper! We all know he's a solid receiver!" Yes, this is true. However, while he isn't a sleeper in the true sense of the word, I believe Marshall will be top 5-10 at his position the rest of the way, something he hasn't quite done yet.  His numbers in his first 4 games--before Chad Henne's injury--and the last 4 have been nearly identical (only 2 fantasy points different). While looking at the numbers it seems like you know what you're gonna get with Marshall, I see a huge ceiling for his stats.  Quarterback Matt Moore has targeted Marshall and average of about 10 times per game, and Moore is only gonna get better. It sounds cliche, but you do the math.

Jake Ballard, NYG: What I predict out of Ballard's career isn't stardom or Pro Bowls, it's a consistent "steady-eddy" performance that boosts him into the top 10 tight ends. He's not flashy or fast, he isn't a hybrid tight end like up-and-coming stars Jimmy Graham and Jermichael Finley. What he is, however, is a tight end who's a great blocker, a solid route runner, and catches every dang ball that Eli Manning guns his way. The only number you need to know about Ballard's 2011 campaign is 238. That's actually 238%. His fantasy production has been 238% more over the 2nd quarter of the season than the 1st. It's a small sample size, but that's incredible. All Ballard does is produce...pick him up.

Chris Ogbonnaya, CLE: The first running back of the group and it's one that has 136 rushing yards in his career! No, this isn't me trying to be funny, I'm serious. I get that you probably doubt him after his outstanding 1 fantasy point last week, and he does play Baltimore and Pittsburgh 4 times over the rest of the season. However, 2 of these match-ups come in weeks 16 and 17, and week 17 is usually irrelevant in fantasy football leagues. He'll be the man if Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty miss more time, and if Colt McCoy keeps regressing the Browns might actually try running it more. No, this won't be the 2nd coming of Jim Brown, but Ogbonnaya could be somewhat valuable off your bench.

Honorable Mentions

If they aren't owned already, pick them up now:
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Saturday, November 5, 2011

Week 9 Bank/Tank

By: Christian Hardy

Now we're here. The officially halfway point of the 2011 NFL season. Week nine is packed full of some great games, so let's get right to it.

I'd like to run over what this article is all about. "Bank" is players I love this week and "Tank" are the players that are going to, well, tank this week. The numbers next to the players are, first,
my ranking, followed by ESPN's consensus ranking. Let's get started, shall we?

Quarterbacks

Bank

Matt Ryan @ Indianapolis
(7th, 8th) - What a turn around Indy has had without Peyton Manning has had his neck surgery. They are now 0-8 and their team as a whole looks worse than ever. Look, Matt Ryan hasn't been great this year (16th ranked fantasy quarterback), but he hasn't been terrible either. If it wasn't for his eight point performance against Chicago and six point game against the undefeated Packers, then he is tied with Ben Roethlisberger as the ninth best fantasy quarterback (15.6 points per game). Against the weak Indy pass defense that is 29th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, you bet I am starting him this week.
Matt Cassel vs Miami (8th, 13th) - Interesting stat for you here: Matt Cassel's best month in terms of passer rating is November. Throughout his career, Cassel has a 83.0 passer rating; in November, Cassel has thrown for a passer rating of 93.1 (his second best month is October with 82.2). That, along with the 31st ranked fantasy pass defense of the Dolphins is starting to look like a real juicy matchup for Matt Cassel.

Tony Romo vs Seattle (4th, 6th) -
Romo has a 110.8 passer rating in two games against Seattle, despite the botched snap on a 19 yard chip shot, that, in return, lost the game for the Cowboys in the 2007 playoffs (2006 season). But this year, Romo is at home against the Seahawks for the first time since 2008. In that particular game, Romo threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. Pretty impressive, right? Definitely start Romo this week, considering the very vulnerable pass defense of the Seahawks.

Extra:
Mark Sanchez @ Buffalo (10th, 15th)

Tank


The story of Tebow as a starter
Tim Tebow @ Oakland (15th, 12th) - Well, I have completely lost the love for this guy. After two (and a half) weeks his stat line is...horrific.A 46.1 completion percentage 412 yards, and a 75.1 passer rating. Just like I said: Horrific.Oakland might have a bad pass defense, but so did Miami. Stay away from Tebow if you can this week. (Warning: This could easily blow up in your face and my face.)

Joe Flacco vs Pittsburgh (24th, 18th) -
Flacco has turned the ball over eight times in seven games against the Steelers. Along with that, he has only scored nine touchdowns and 215 yards per game. And, wait, there's more. The Steelers allow just 11.5 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year, which is seventh in the league. There is no way I am putting Flacco in my lineup this week, despite a great game from him in week one of this season against the Steelers.

Running Backs

Bank
Shonn Greene @ Buffalo (10th, 13th) - Greene has twenty carries or more in three straight games and in every game this season he has 10 carries or more. Lead back? I think so. With those type of carries, Greene is an every week start, and it only makes it better when he has a great matchup. Greene plays the Bills who allow 16.7 points per game to opposing running backs this season (including the whopping three points that they allowed to the Redskins last week). To go along with all of this, in the past five games against the Jets, the Bills have given up over 200 rushing yards. Plus, the Bills will be without Kyle Williams which is a great run stopper for this defense. I expect a 15-20 point game for Greene here, and maybe even the game where he finally breaks out.


Steven Jackson blew up for three touchdowns last week
Steven Jackson vs Arizona (6th, 9th) - What are the Rams going on Bradford's first game back from that ankle sprain? I'm pretty sure that they are going to give the ball to their top playmaker who goes by the name of Steven Jackson. Jackson led the Rams to their first win of the season over the red-hot Saints, and so why can't he do it against this defense? The Cardinals allow just over 17 points per game to opposing running backs, and no one by Steven Jackson is going to be touching the rock out of the backfield for this team. Get Steven Jackson in your lineup this week, just like I suggested last week.

Extra:
Jackie Battle vs Miami (12th, 20th) - Miami has a decent fantasy rush defense (10th), but with the type of carries he is getting, it is hard not to like him.

Tank

Ryan Torain vs San Francisco (41st, 30th) - I loved this guy for two weeks, with two great matchups. Now he takes on the 49ers, who have the best fantasy defense against opposing running backs. Torain has just three points combined in his last three games against Philadelphia, Carolina, and Buffalo; three of the worst fantasy run defenses. At this point, you can drop Torain, but I am definitely keeping him on my bench.


Chris Johnson vs Cincinnati (32nd, 21st) - What a terrible season for CJ (The "2K" part of it has been revoked, by me). Javon Ringer is now stealing his carries, and Johnson can't even bust through an open hole. He is one of the biggest draft busts that I have seen without injury outside of Randy Moss last year. To go along with that, the Bengals, Johnson's week nine opponent, has only allowed 14 points per game to opposing running backs, which is the tenth best in the league. Keep Johnson on your bench until he can put some points up.


Extra: BenJarvus Green-Ellis vs New York Giants (28th, 17th, also is questionable with a toe injury), Rashard Mendenhall vs Baltimore (24th, 12th)

Wide Receivers

Bank
Miles Austin vs Seattle (3, 13) - The Cowboys looked terrible against the Eagles last week, so you might think that I am crazy for thinking he will have a big game, but hear me out. Last game against the Seahawks, Austin had 12 fantasy points in a standard league, not bad. Austin only has 16 fantasy points in his last three games combined, but the Seahawks allow 22.1 points per game to opposing wide receivers, tenth worst in the league. I expect a huge bounce back from Romo in this one, and I'm feeling so Austin coming along as well.

You know, it puzzles me why he would wear a mouthpiece that big.

Jeremy Maclin vs Chicago (7th, 14th) - I don't think Maclin gets the credit for what he has been doing. For the first time in his career, he has put up consistent numbers on a week to week basis, including great fantasy numbers. After week one, Maclin has not dropped under five points and he now has three straight games of ten points or more, while Desean Jackson has just seven points in his last two games. I think you can call this one more of a hunch that any thing; that, and the rankers at ESPN are a little too low on him. Matthew Berry noted in his week nine Love/Hate that the Bears have been dropping back into deep coverage more often than not, so they will be defending the big play from Desean Jackson while Maclin keeps getting underneath. (I just read the complete excerpt from Berry, and this has a lot of the same content in it, but I did not mean to copy at all, just a heads up.)


Extra:
Santonio Holmes @ Buffalo (14th, 24th) - You can call this one a hunch. It only helps that Burress has a back injury.

Tank

Steve Johnson vs New York Jets (35th, 21st) - Destination: Revis Island. Darrelle Revis has had a tremendous bounce back from 2010, and our friends over at ProFootballFocus.com did an entire story on it. I suggest you check it out. It really is remarkable what Revis has done this year, and if he shadows Johnson all day, then I would go with the under on three catches.


John Skelton es no bueno.
Larry Fitzgerald vs St.Louis (14th, 5th)  - I'm not jumping on the Fitzgerald train just because he is playing the Rams, who are the fourth worst fantasy defense against opposing wide receivers. John Skelton will likely be the starter for the Cardinals with Kolb listed as questionable this week, and Skelton never really hooked up with Fitzgerald. Last year, in the three games that Skelton started and finished, Fitzgerald never caught a touchdown pass, and he only averaged 77.3 yards per game. Even against this St.Louis team who has struggled against the pass, I still don't like Fitzgerald as anymore than a number two.

Extra: Vincent Jackson vs Green Bay (23rd, 11th), Brandon Marshall @ Kansas City (26th, 15th)



Tight Ends
Bank

My second Eagles' pass catcher I love this week.
Brent Celek vs Chicago (7th, 16th) - Now remember, Celek is listed as questionable, but I fully expect him to play. If he does play, I am completely buying in on this guy. He now has a touchdown in each of his last two games, including eleven receptions in those two games. The Bears are the worst team against opposing tight ends, allowing 11.4 points per game in that category. Celek is a great start right now, especially if a guy like Jermichael Finley is letting you down.

Extra: Jake Ballard @ New England (10th, 15th)



Tank

Jermichael Finley @ San Diego (11th, 7th) - This guy has fallen off tremendously since week three with only about four points per game since that 26 point performance (with three touchdowns). The Chargers have an average defense against opposing tight ends (7.1 points per game), but nothing to get exciting about. If you drafted this guy in the first four rounds, well, I'm sorry, because that means you probably don't have a replacement for him.


Thanks for reading. I'll be back on Saturday with my game analysis from every game in the NFL on my blog (theffaddict.com). Until then, as always, you can
check out my fantasy rankings that have completely updated according to injury, and you can also check out the injury report which sums up all of the injury news from every day. For any fantasy questions, feel free to hit up my twitter or my email. See you all on Saturday!