Thursday, August 16, 2012

The 10 and the 2 and the 1: Tight Ends, Kickers and Defense

by Matt Prendergast

Look, I was all excited to make all these lists about the 25 best fantasy options per position, but to be honest, after the big three positions, the idea loses a lot of luster....plus, I'm not sure I could seriously list 25 valid Tight End options without blatantly lying, or at very least including Shannon Sharpe in the booth, so we adapt.  Here's your ten best bets at TE for 2012, in my opinion - and as an added bonus, all the full rankings you're gonna need for kickers and defenses to boot!

#9 in the Google Image Search for 'Tight End'. Stay Classy, Internet!
(and trust me, you don't want to see the #7 Chris Cooley entry)
1) Jimmy Graham - I prefer Graham over both the Pats' guys for simple reasons: there's only one of him, and the Saints NEED his production as Marques Colston continues to slowly erode, and Meachem blew town. But. he's gonna go off your board way too early for a TE, so don't even consider it.

2) Aaron Hernandez - Dude was the third best TE in the league last year, and nobody talks about him because, well, see below. From a drafting perspective, you'll have a more-than-decent shot at getting similar weekly production while drafting him two rounds later. That's better value.

3) Gronk - Yeah, I know, he's the greatest Tight End in the History of Man. That said, Bill Belichek is prone to never doing the same thing twice. If I'm in Hoodie's shoes, I know people are planning for Gronk, and I'm already shifting the offense to favor Hernandez, or any of seven other options. Gronk still gets his opportunities to be beastly, but there's gonna be a few less of those. Besides, somebody in your draft room is going to take him in the first two rounds (and there is NEVER a reason to take a TE that high), so this is a moot point anyway.

4) Vernon Davis - There's a lot more players in town for SF fighting for looks - but in the end, I think the addition of Randy and Mario benefits Vernon much more than it hurts him. The 9ers have gotten real good, real fast thanks to his generally-improved maturity and athleticism. They'll continue on that track by increasing his production through the new added distraction on the outside.

5) Antonio Gates - He's older, he's been banged up....who cares. Gates changed this position permanently, and he's not done yet. With camp news that he's healthier than he's been in years (grain of salt), but more importantly, with the replacement of Vincent Jackson with new speed options on the flanks, I firmly believe Antonio regains his form from 2009 at a much cheaper price than back in the day. More mid-field opportunities, plus Rivers' comfort level all contribute to the cause.


6) Jermaine Gresham - Again, I see you questioning my sanity, but hear me out: Jermaine Gresham has the elite-level talent of all the guys on this list. However, playing in Cincinnati, he's developed gradually, maintained a low profile thanks to AJ and Dalton's spectacular rookie outings, and somehow stayed out of the police beat the entire time there. With AJ Green pulling extra coverage, Jermaine becomes the best available option for a second-year QB and I see his stats exploding this year....and you can get him easily past the 8th round. If I'm looking for value at TE without selling out another position to get it, Gresham is my lock.


7) Jason  'The Spleen' Witten - Solid, steady and one of Romo's only weekly consistent options, there's nothing pointing to a reduction of efficiency from JW in 2012. You can't really get a more consistent TE. EDIT: I was going to move him on the list on account of the spleen injury, but then I realized he's still pretty much at number seven even if he somehow loses a foot in this process of healing.

How about this year, instead of 'YOTTO', you spell 'CATCHO'?
8) Jermichael Finley - All world talent, just ask him. I like Jermichael, he's an earnest guy and you can tell he works his ass off - it's just that, well, he kinda always feels like he's distracted, like a kid dropped in a Toys R Us alone and told 'do whatever you want'. So you get dances, and tweets and catchphrases...none of those things equate to production.  That feeling is what's prevented J-Fin from really becoming the destructive force that he's been heralded to be with any sort of consistency. That said, he's still real young, and I take his personal season-shutdown of his Twitter account as a great step in the right direction, however I have to see it on the field....and that's a field with legitimately five other options on every play, so if he doesn't show up quickly, he's going to get worked out of the rotation.

8) Tony Gonzalez - Immortal. Still solid.  Last year: 875 yards and 7 scores, and for the price you'll get him at, that's about as much as you can ask for.

9) Fred Davis - Pretty much here because of his talent and potential, but doesn't he seem a little squirrely? If things click early for Fred and RG3, he could have a tremendous stat year and be a mid-round steal, but I'd keep an eye on how the Skins look in preseason - honest to god, I have no idea what to expect out of that team as a whole, and I'm not sure Shanny has any better idea than I do.

10) Flip A Coin - Marcedes Lewis has a Gabbert problem. Brent Celek has a disappearing problem. Coby Fleener hasn't played a down on a team that is a long ways away from being average. Kyle Rudolph is all potential. Owen Daniels is never gonna be the old Owen Daniels again, or maybe he is? Pettigrew is supposed to be awesome, but.... Point is, TE is a position that yearly has a couple guys show up out of nowhere and put together decent numbers, and if you're working your waiver wire, you'll be able to snap that guy up early...so pay attention.

A Note On Jacob Tamme - A real hot commodity this year (going as the 8th TE overall currently on fantasyfootballcalculator.com) based on....an okay 2010 season filling in for Dallas Clark? Take a look at the facts: Last year, Tamme played in every game (though only started five), granted for possibly the worst team to ever take the field, and had 19 receptions. THE WHOLE YEAR. Isn't the TE the go-to guy on bad teams generally? So folks are drafting Tamme based on Peyton Manning's history with Clark and that's about it. Tamme's shown talent, but elite talent? Not yet, not by a long shot, and maybe not ever....so let somebody else reach on that one....

Now.... to the final lists - the much maligned but gloriously necessary butt-end of your fantasy squads: the kickers and defenses. A lot of thought has gone into the careful construction of these rankings, so please read with care and take time to absorb the intricate design of these recommendations for winning.


KICKERS!

He's thinking about a cop's head right here.
1: Sebastian Janikowski - Let me set this record spinning: Sebastian Janikowski is the greatest kicker of all time. Not due to stats, or consistency, but because he's a portly, half-crazy, lawbreaker who is one of the greatest Raider draft picks of all time. The dude can crush it from 60 yards on a pretty consistent basis, and I'm willing to bet on most of those he can't even focus on the field for one reason or another. In short, Seabass is the only active kicker I wouldn't even consider fighting for a second, and if he wanted to team up with Todd Sauerbrun, I'm pretty sure they could overthrow the government of Pakistan over a weekend. Sebastian Janikowski is the only fantasy kicker that intimidates your opponents, so make it happen.

2 to Infinity:  Any other kicker. They'll all do just fine, and if the kicker is the lynch-pin to your championship season plans, you have already drafted poorly. I do put preference on teams that are sorta-good, as those squads often use the kicker as a critical part of their point-scoring scheme, though kickers on great teams often make up for it by scoring an assload of extra points. If you choose to go with a kicker playing on a team with a poor offense, please note that it's generally preferred to go with one on a team that semi-regularly gets past the fifty yard line. This year, that means you should avoid Phil Dawson.

DEFENSE!

1 to 25: Pick one, except for probably the Browns, Vikes, and Jags. And maybe not the Cardinals. If the one you chose turns out to suck, go get a different one. Do not take the Ravens or Bears in the fourth round, ever.

Point is: If you're counting on your defense to make the difference, you've already lost.


NOW LET'S GET OUT THERE AND WIN, FELLAS!



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