MORE LIST! Yay for hackneyed formats! As you may have garnered, here's the best fantasy arms for your drafting dollar, as I see it for 2012 - and please note, I've got these in tiers, listed in the order I'd take them, but by and large any guy in any tier is capable of sliding up or down a couple notches. So apply as you see fit, now let's go!
The Top Trio
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| Also Decreed 'King of Mustaches' |
Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady
And here, it's in that order, probably. Rodgers is the popular #1 pick, but you really can't go wrong with any of these guys. Except for that point where you kill a first round pick on acquiring them, because when you do that, you've made a mistake....but hey, do what you like, nobody's judging! Just note, when you do drop that first pick on an arm, you better damn well know how you're going to assemble the rest of the fantasy team around him.
4 to 10 - Great Production/Affordable Price
Matt Stafford, Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Cam Newton, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Michael Vick
Stafford - Let's state this clearly: if you can get Matt Stafford in the late third round, you should probably do that. Simply put: he has all the talent and potential of the top three guys, he just hasn't had early durability, and he plays on a prison squad. Assuming the Lions don't implode early, there's no reason why Matt Stafford can't eclipse any of the three kings, but all it takes is one solid hit, or a internal team meltdown (and that's clearly a huge risk) to leave all that potential greatness scattered across the charred earth.
E. Manning - He's pretty stable and a winner - but you're going to get a couple depressing weeks in there. That's always going to happen with Eli on the Giants...same thing can be said about most quarterbacks, though, so it's really not much of of worry.
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| 'This is temporary, I was still better on SNL and Cooper still gets more chicks, E.' |
Cam Newton - I can't argue with how solid and great Cam came out of the gate - and he pressed hard until season's end. What I can worry about is the repeatability of that production - he's not surprising anybody this year, and some teams are going to be able to clamp down on aspects of his game they weren't prepared for last year....but it's that 'account for Cam' prep that's going to create other opportunities this year. The question is: can the rest of the team step up and help him take advantage? My bet is 'more than you might think'.
The Original Manning - Probably the greatest quarterback to play in my lifetime, but we all know the question: can he even get back to 80% of 'Old Peyton'. It's a gut feeling, but Peyton has always hit me as a smarter guy, and a little less ego-driven - in other words, he's not grasping, he knows he's still got the gun. Worth the risk.
Tony Romo - Hate all you want, specific Dallas fan contingents, your team is a thousand times more capable of winning with him than without. From a fantasy standpoint, he's a decent start when healthy, and knows his weapons. Not as consistent as the top guys, that's why he's here. That said, I'd love to see Orton in there, but I don't think that's a legitimate threat.
Michael Vick - Will drive you insane. But when he's good, he's very very good, and he's light years better as a quarterback post-joint than pre-incarcerated. I question whether he's ever really going to be able to shake that internal drive to go for it all (vintage Favre), but the Eagles and Vick should be smarter this year than last year's braggadocio-cursed misfire of a season. Now just get Mike to shut up and play.
11 to 17 - Caveat Emptor
Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, Matt Schaub, Ben Rothlisberger
Ryan - It's an intangible thing I have about Matt Ryan: I just don't believe he's as good as his stats, and that probably clouds my judgement....even with that said, he's in a good system, throwing to maybe the best tandem in the league based on raw talent, and still has The Immortal at tight end as an insurance policy. But I have him out of the top ten for my reasons, the primary one being I just don't see him possessing that intangible 'win at all costs' mentality.
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| 'This offseason, I either saw Phish eleven times or built some sort of bomb....it's all kinda blurry' |
Joe Flacco - I want Joe Flacco to be a better fantasy QB option, but all the hype in the world doesn't make it so. Until he puts up consistent passing stats in fantasy play, he'll always remain a middle-of-the-road guy. Not gonna kill you, but not likely going to make the critical difference in your match-ups.
Cutty! - As many statements as Brian Urlacher or whoever wants to make, the Bears haven't clearly improved their offensive line, and that's really Jay Cutler's biggest issue. Brandon Marshall might be the greatest Chicago pick up since, well, Cutler, but that could easily devolve into a two-man show if anything happens to Forte, and that's easier to defend. JC still has all the skills to be elite, but a 'we'll see' attitude has to be firmly in mind if putting your fantasy season on his shoulders.
Matt Schaub - Better-than-average talent, but durability concerns throughout the Texans passing game with Schaub, Andre and Owen forced the Texans to become run-first, and that turned out to be terrific. TJ Yates helmed that team to the playoffs, which should be a good indicator that maybe it's become the system more than the players. Still, I like the guy when he's upright.
Ben Rothlisberger - A winning leader, but never the best fantasy option - and with Mike Wallace pretty well dooming his season whether he plays or not, Big Head Ben is without his best fantasy production option.
17 to Infinity and Beyond- Fantasy QB By Committee
Almost Everybody Else
Upsides and downsides abound for all the other QB options out there, but these guys are not reliable starting caliber. Now, that said, there's potential in here, so take a run at maybe one of these guys as a QB2, especially if you've landed on one of the lower-tier number one options above:
Carson Palmer - Have three guys' careers ever so clearly relied upon each others as much as Palmer, OchoJohnsonCinco and TJ Houshmanzadeh's have? None of these guys have been anything but a shadow of their former selves since separating. That said, Palmer isn't losing his gig, and he's got terrific options in Oakland, it's just that, well, so far he seems very, um, 'meh'.
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| Dalton's Key To Success: An unyielding weights program |
RG3 and Andy Luck - Dynasty League? You betcha. 'Cam Newton' repeat? Unlikely....but if one of them does come close, I'd bet on the more versatile Griffin. That said, I wouldn't touch either guy in a redraft.
Matt Cassell - The Chiefs built better weaponry in the ancillary regiions and bring a lot of big guns back from the IR this year. I don't think Cassell is anything better than average, but there's a nice benefit to working within a machine, and he may turn out to be surprising.
Christian Ponder - I liked everything I saw in Ponder last year except for the Vikings around him. Long term, I think he's going to be terrific, but it still feels too soon - considering AD's injury and Simpson's suspension, to expect consistent fantasy points out of Christian this year - but stranger things have happened, so I wouldn't hate having him on the bench a couple weeks just to see what shakes out.
I really wanted Matt Flynn in here somewhere, but since he apparently hasn't beaten out Tavaris Jackson yet, he's getting thrown in the blargh pile with Sanchez, Bradford, Alex Smith and Josh Freeman. Note: ANY ONE OF THESE GUYS MIGHT EXPLODE, but I just can't draft on 'maybe'. Eh, I still might take a flyer on Flynn over Ponder, but at that point it's just grasping.
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| 2011 Season Highlight |
Blaine Gabbert - What Jaguars' football I saw last year (which, granted, wasn't much, as one generally needs to have highlights to show up on RedZone), showed me that apparently Jacksonville drafted an American Idol contestant and mistakenly listed him as a QB. DO NOT WANT.
For Wednesday - The 25: Wide Receivers
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