The Stock Report: Week 4

Editor's Note:  Our friends over at IcetheKick.com have been kind enough to let us post one of their weekly articles, "The Stock Report".  It will cover who in fantasy football is worth buying or selling on.  You can expect this column every Wednesday from now on.

By: Brady

We may have a new Madden curse upon us.  I know that one week does not make a trend, but if last week was an indication of things to come this column may be a curse on the league.  I listed Beanie Wells and Kenny Britt as buys last week.  The next day, Beanie pulled his hammy and sat out last weeks game (I still am not wavering on Beanie, healthy, as a buy opportunity).  Unfortunately, Kenny Britt ripped up his ACL and fumbled to top it off.  The other buy last week was Eric Decker, who continued his solid play, pulling down 7 catches — a big bonus if you picked him up in a PPR league.

I must tout some of my other recommendations I made last week.  I told you that you to hold on to Jermichael Finley as he was about to explode.  You saw him do just that this week, as he caught 3 TDs against the Bears and was the top TE for week 3.  People that were frustrated with the first two weeks must realize that they should expect more performances on the level of last week, as opposed to the first two weeks where he did not see the end zone.  Dont expect 3TDs each week, but I think he becomes the go to red zone target the rest of the year for the Pack.

I also told you to hold on Plaxico, who rewarded owners with a TD grab and 55 yards.  I think Sanchez will continue to feel more comfortable tossing the ball his way in the red zone.  It seems as if Plax is struggling to separate from DBs outside of the red zone, so he may not rack up a lot of yards, but if you forsee a week where the Jets will be able to move the ball well; I’d make Plax a play at your WR3 spot. My other hold was Malcolm Floyd, who continues to sit with an injury.  Monitor that situation.

I also would say I hit on two of my three sells.  I said it was time to start thinking about dumping Cam Newton and his #1 target Steve Smith, and both struggled last week. (There was also a monsoon mid game, but still). I would not expect performances at quite that low of a level going forward, but they were overvalued going into this past week. I also suggested selling on Ryan Grant, and I would reiterate that sell this week after a plus performance against the Bears.

This Weeks Moves:

BUY -  Denarius Moore - This guy is impressing coaches, and really showing everyone in Oakland that he may be the most true receiver they have on the squad. I think when they drafted Heyward-Bey, this is the type of play-making they had in mind.  He will only be implemented more as the seasons carries on, and I do not think sharing snaps will be an issue.  Buy on Denarius Moore while he is still on peoples benches.  It may take a few more weeks for him to make it into a position to be a weekly starter for your squad, but buy on lower opportunities.

BUY -  Chris Johnson - If anyone in your league is taking offers for Chris Johnson, now is the time to buy low on him.  This is a pace that is NOT going to continue going forward.  It simply cannot.  I usually use that phrase when talking about high levels of performance, but in this case it is the opposite.  With a passing game that has looked solid, and as Chris Johnson becomes more motivated and regains game shape; he will revert to his old form.  Buy now if you can, as his stock has been beaten down with poor performances.

BUY – Phillip Rivers - I think that Rivers stock will take off once again when the Chargers, as a team, heal.  Antonio Gates has been out.  Malcolm Floyd has been out.  Mike Tolbert is banged up.  These are 3 of his top 5 weapons.  Buy Rivers at this dip now before his stock bounces back.

HOLD – Jacoby Ford  -  I already mentioned one Raiders WR.  Now it’s time for the other explosive one that is returning from injury.  Ford has sat out the last two weeks with injury concerns and it looks like he will be back this week.  If week 1 was an indication of how much the Raiders plan on getting him the ball; he is suited to have some blow up games in the near future.  They appeared to be trying to get him the ball in a variety of fashions, which is the correct decision given his measurables and the flashes he showed last season.  If you have Ford at this point, continue to hold and allow him to get back into the swing of things.

HOLD – Mike Williams (TB) - A lot of people had big things planned for Mike Wiliams this year, but he has been disappointing the last two weeks. (ITK writer Chris has cried himself to sleep for 2 straight weeks.) The Tampa passing game has just not been there, and it is really hurting owners who are starting Williams expecting solid yards and red zone looks.  I don’t know if Tampa really has established their identity yet this year on offense, but I think they will soon.  Once they do, Williams will have to be one of the main beneficiaries of that.  Keep holding on to Mike Williams for a few more weeks before you think about cutting your losses.

HOLD – Rashard Mendenhall -  I see a lot of managers floating the idea of trading Mendenhall out there right now.  I would advise against trading away Mendenhall.  He has been right there with Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, and DeAngelo Williams in terms of top flight busts this season.  But Mendenhall will bounce back; I do not think he’ll reach the level that people were projecting him to as a top 5-8 pick, but he will retain RB1 status before this year is over.  Hold him if you can.

SELL – Victor Cruz  - I think Victor Cruz’s hype and value are at their peaks right now.  Cruz is a product of a huge game (captured on Hard Knocks) last year in the preseason and a stat line that was heavily inflated by a bad tackling.  Cruz is worth a stash on your bench, but if you think theres a manager in your league showing interest in the youngster, take what you can get for him now.  He will be relegated to the WR3 position for the Giants soon as Manningham returns and I do not forsee this Giants squad opening up the offense enough to have three wide receivers that have starting value on your fantasy squad.

SELL – Roddy White - Trust me, I still think Roddy is a top flight WR in the league, but this has more to do with the emergence I predict is coming from Julio Jones.  Roddy is still definitely worth owning and starting in your league; but I think if you can get great value for him at this point, you make the move.  This is the move I made this week when I traded Roddy along with Felix Jones to fellow ITK Writer, Chris(He’s a former Jaamal Charles,and current Mike Wlliams, and Santonio owner, it’s been a rough 3 weeks for him),in return for Run DMC and Mike Sims-Walker.  I need the RBs, and am well stocked at WR, and I thought I should take the risk that Roddy may deminish slightly in the passing game going forward.

SELL – Donald Driver -  If you are just a casual fantasy observer, and have remembered past years when it meant something to have Donald Driver on your team, wake up.  This is not 2008 and Driver is quickly driving his stock off a cliff.  Driver is in a quagmire in Green Bay where nothing is quite defined outside of the WR1 position.  Driver, Nelson, and James Jones all are fighting for third pickings from Rodgers (behind Jennings and Finley).  It appears that Nelson is the one that is doing the best to fill that spot and James Jones has the upside and play making ability that Driver no longer has.  Driver’s role and snaps are diminishing and you should try to take advantage of some rookie manager in your fantasy league and see if you can get something of value for this name that no longer equates to the value on the field.

Speculative Play - Greg Little
Last week I told you all that my speculative play was Dane Sazenbacher.  He backed up my prediction with a TD for the second straight week, and continued to be one of Cutler’s favorite targets in the red zone (His favorite target is the opposing defense).  This week I think you look to Greg Little as a speculative play.  Little’s ownage percentage in fantasy leagues is very low, and presents a good opportunity to pick him up before he starts making plays.  Greg Little was quiet most of last week, until the final drive when Colt McCoy and the Browns abandoned their gameplan to use the TEs in short and intermediate routes, and decided to start to make plays more to the edges and down field.  Browns WRs had 2 TDs last week, Massaquoi and Cribbs, and I think this week it’s time for Greg Little to find pay dirt.  If you’re looking for a speculative move to make at WR, Greg Little is my choice this week.

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