Tuesday, August 28, 2012

It's Draft Week and a Half!

by Matt Prendergast

Alright kids, this is where you finally show all those people that told you 'You're not very smart', 'Most don't repeat the fifth grade - and certainly not four times', and 'Have you ever made a sandwich before? Because normally the bread parts are on the outside'. This, finally, is your time to shine.

Now we've already broken down the rankings for you here - but for your convenience, we'll aggregate those in the next day or so into one nice list. Because god forbid you put any effort in. We've given you the links to the best advice crew you can find in your ears with The Fantasy Football Guys. We've even called your boss and explained you can't possibly be put in charge of pepperoni inventory this week....it's because we care.

Never worry about the guy in the Bengals jersey. Trust me.
Now, it's pretty much up to you - we can't be there at the draft for you, the cost of a flight alone would be ridiculous at your wage! THINK MAN! But for review, here's a couple additional pointers for consideration as you head out into this scary and frigid endeavor all on your own....

Reminders!

1) Make (and bring) your ranking lists. I can't stress this enough - you bought magazines, sure. And you know those were only for early meandering - that said, still DO NOT BRING THEM WITH YOU. Because you will invariably get concerned about the sixth round and crack it open 'just in case' and for-god's-sake-did-you-really-just-take-James-Jones-you-don't-even-have-an-RB2-yet'. The mags should have been burned a month ago. Even if you don't want to go to all the bother of making your own lists, at least go steal somebody elses. THERE'S NINE BILLION OF THEM OUT THERE. And that's the only thing you should be using....

2) Don't get there early. Also, don't get there late. If you get to your draft early, you're exposing yourself to an extra beer, or scotch-and-soda, or gasoline swig - I don't know what you're polluting yourself with, degenerate - and that will invariably kill you somewhere in the fourth round.

3) By similar logic, don't be late, on account of then you're a dick and you deserve Neil Rackers in the first round.

4) By all means, be supportive of your co-managers - especially when one asks you if it's crazy to take a Tight End in the first round. OF COURSE IT ISN'T JUB!

5) Get the ribs. Always get the ribs.

That's all we've got for now, kids, good luck and happy drafting!



Thursday, August 16, 2012

The 10 and the 2 and the 1: Tight Ends, Kickers and Defense

by Matt Prendergast

Look, I was all excited to make all these lists about the 25 best fantasy options per position, but to be honest, after the big three positions, the idea loses a lot of luster....plus, I'm not sure I could seriously list 25 valid Tight End options without blatantly lying, or at very least including Shannon Sharpe in the booth, so we adapt.  Here's your ten best bets at TE for 2012, in my opinion - and as an added bonus, all the full rankings you're gonna need for kickers and defenses to boot!

#9 in the Google Image Search for 'Tight End'. Stay Classy, Internet!
(and trust me, you don't want to see the #7 Chris Cooley entry)
1) Jimmy Graham - I prefer Graham over both the Pats' guys for simple reasons: there's only one of him, and the Saints NEED his production as Marques Colston continues to slowly erode, and Meachem blew town. But. he's gonna go off your board way too early for a TE, so don't even consider it.

2) Aaron Hernandez - Dude was the third best TE in the league last year, and nobody talks about him because, well, see below. From a drafting perspective, you'll have a more-than-decent shot at getting similar weekly production while drafting him two rounds later. That's better value.

3) Gronk - Yeah, I know, he's the greatest Tight End in the History of Man. That said, Bill Belichek is prone to never doing the same thing twice. If I'm in Hoodie's shoes, I know people are planning for Gronk, and I'm already shifting the offense to favor Hernandez, or any of seven other options. Gronk still gets his opportunities to be beastly, but there's gonna be a few less of those. Besides, somebody in your draft room is going to take him in the first two rounds (and there is NEVER a reason to take a TE that high), so this is a moot point anyway.

4) Vernon Davis - There's a lot more players in town for SF fighting for looks - but in the end, I think the addition of Randy and Mario benefits Vernon much more than it hurts him. The 9ers have gotten real good, real fast thanks to his generally-improved maturity and athleticism. They'll continue on that track by increasing his production through the new added distraction on the outside.

5) Antonio Gates - He's older, he's been banged up....who cares. Gates changed this position permanently, and he's not done yet. With camp news that he's healthier than he's been in years (grain of salt), but more importantly, with the replacement of Vincent Jackson with new speed options on the flanks, I firmly believe Antonio regains his form from 2009 at a much cheaper price than back in the day. More mid-field opportunities, plus Rivers' comfort level all contribute to the cause.


6) Jermaine Gresham - Again, I see you questioning my sanity, but hear me out: Jermaine Gresham has the elite-level talent of all the guys on this list. However, playing in Cincinnati, he's developed gradually, maintained a low profile thanks to AJ and Dalton's spectacular rookie outings, and somehow stayed out of the police beat the entire time there. With AJ Green pulling extra coverage, Jermaine becomes the best available option for a second-year QB and I see his stats exploding this year....and you can get him easily past the 8th round. If I'm looking for value at TE without selling out another position to get it, Gresham is my lock.


7) Jason  'The Spleen' Witten - Solid, steady and one of Romo's only weekly consistent options, there's nothing pointing to a reduction of efficiency from JW in 2012. You can't really get a more consistent TE. EDIT: I was going to move him on the list on account of the spleen injury, but then I realized he's still pretty much at number seven even if he somehow loses a foot in this process of healing.

How about this year, instead of 'YOTTO', you spell 'CATCHO'?
8) Jermichael Finley - All world talent, just ask him. I like Jermichael, he's an earnest guy and you can tell he works his ass off - it's just that, well, he kinda always feels like he's distracted, like a kid dropped in a Toys R Us alone and told 'do whatever you want'. So you get dances, and tweets and catchphrases...none of those things equate to production.  That feeling is what's prevented J-Fin from really becoming the destructive force that he's been heralded to be with any sort of consistency. That said, he's still real young, and I take his personal season-shutdown of his Twitter account as a great step in the right direction, however I have to see it on the field....and that's a field with legitimately five other options on every play, so if he doesn't show up quickly, he's going to get worked out of the rotation.

8) Tony Gonzalez - Immortal. Still solid.  Last year: 875 yards and 7 scores, and for the price you'll get him at, that's about as much as you can ask for.

9) Fred Davis - Pretty much here because of his talent and potential, but doesn't he seem a little squirrely? If things click early for Fred and RG3, he could have a tremendous stat year and be a mid-round steal, but I'd keep an eye on how the Skins look in preseason - honest to god, I have no idea what to expect out of that team as a whole, and I'm not sure Shanny has any better idea than I do.

10) Flip A Coin - Marcedes Lewis has a Gabbert problem. Brent Celek has a disappearing problem. Coby Fleener hasn't played a down on a team that is a long ways away from being average. Kyle Rudolph is all potential. Owen Daniels is never gonna be the old Owen Daniels again, or maybe he is? Pettigrew is supposed to be awesome, but.... Point is, TE is a position that yearly has a couple guys show up out of nowhere and put together decent numbers, and if you're working your waiver wire, you'll be able to snap that guy up early...so pay attention.

A Note On Jacob Tamme - A real hot commodity this year (going as the 8th TE overall currently on fantasyfootballcalculator.com) based on....an okay 2010 season filling in for Dallas Clark? Take a look at the facts: Last year, Tamme played in every game (though only started five), granted for possibly the worst team to ever take the field, and had 19 receptions. THE WHOLE YEAR. Isn't the TE the go-to guy on bad teams generally? So folks are drafting Tamme based on Peyton Manning's history with Clark and that's about it. Tamme's shown talent, but elite talent? Not yet, not by a long shot, and maybe not ever....so let somebody else reach on that one....

Now.... to the final lists - the much maligned but gloriously necessary butt-end of your fantasy squads: the kickers and defenses. A lot of thought has gone into the careful construction of these rankings, so please read with care and take time to absorb the intricate design of these recommendations for winning.


KICKERS!

He's thinking about a cop's head right here.
1: Sebastian Janikowski - Let me set this record spinning: Sebastian Janikowski is the greatest kicker of all time. Not due to stats, or consistency, but because he's a portly, half-crazy, lawbreaker who is one of the greatest Raider draft picks of all time. The dude can crush it from 60 yards on a pretty consistent basis, and I'm willing to bet on most of those he can't even focus on the field for one reason or another. In short, Seabass is the only active kicker I wouldn't even consider fighting for a second, and if he wanted to team up with Todd Sauerbrun, I'm pretty sure they could overthrow the government of Pakistan over a weekend. Sebastian Janikowski is the only fantasy kicker that intimidates your opponents, so make it happen.

2 to Infinity:  Any other kicker. They'll all do just fine, and if the kicker is the lynch-pin to your championship season plans, you have already drafted poorly. I do put preference on teams that are sorta-good, as those squads often use the kicker as a critical part of their point-scoring scheme, though kickers on great teams often make up for it by scoring an assload of extra points. If you choose to go with a kicker playing on a team with a poor offense, please note that it's generally preferred to go with one on a team that semi-regularly gets past the fifty yard line. This year, that means you should avoid Phil Dawson.

DEFENSE!

1 to 25: Pick one, except for probably the Browns, Vikes, and Jags. And maybe not the Cardinals. If the one you chose turns out to suck, go get a different one. Do not take the Ravens or Bears in the fourth round, ever.

Point is: If you're counting on your defense to make the difference, you've already lost.


NOW LET'S GET OUT THERE AND WIN, FELLAS!



Your complaints about these unjust rankings will be easier communicated when you follow @AmazingMattyP on the Twitter

In fact, follow all the ReclinerQB crew - they're good people and may listen to your complaints!

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

The 25: Wide Receivers

by Matt Prendergast

List #3 in a series of five - today we're giving you what I consider to be the roughest of the categories - the Wide Receiver position.  No matter what I or you say or do, there's gonna be some dingus come out of nowhere and blow the scale, and three or four guys that just crap their pants....but we do this out of love. As always, my opinions only, but my opinions are law.

If necessary, Megatron will throw TDs to himself, got it?
Number One With a Bullet:

Calvin Johnson - But you already knew that. CJ is the best player at his position, in good health and is just starting to peak on a team that finally understands the importance of throwing to him. Problem: You're going to need to deal out a first round pick to get him, but at the back end of Round One, I don't hate the idea, assuming you're grabbing the best available RB on the way back.

2 to 25: Feel Free to Argue, I Won't Be Listening Anyway

2) Andre Johnson - Yes, he's getting older and got banged up (again) last year; those are the only two factors separating him from Calvin Johnson, really, and I suspect if Andre gets through camp healthy (and so does Schaub), he'll be in fine form for at least 13 games this year

3) Roddy White - I love Julio Jones, but he's the hot ticket now in ATL. Defenses will likely consider it the same, and they can't double down on both guys. Thing is, Roddy hasn't really lost a step or anything, so this should benefit him in a colossal manner.

4) Jordy Nelson - Sure I'm a Packer homer, but I also like everything I've heard and seen out of camp so far - and Jordy hasn't even hit his groove hit. Again, there's a million options for Rodgers, but Jordy seems to be the big-play guy of the moment, and he'll benefit again this year from Jennings pulling extra coverage.

5) Hakeem Nicks - Victor Cruz had an outstanding year - but partially because nobody expected much from him, and then had trouble catching up.  Hakeem is still the better receiver when healthy, but it's close.

5a) AJ Green - Jesus H Alzheimers, I was re-reading this today and realized I didn't have AJ Freaking Green on here...I blame old age. Between AJ and Nicks, I start getting worried about weekly production...then I realize I worry too much.... (Edited: 8/16/12)

6) Mike Wallace  Dwayne Bowe Dez Bryant - There, that covers about where Wallace and Bowe would /will be sitting if either ever shows up to camp. However, I start dropping those guys incrementally each week they're still out, and honestly it wouldn't surprise me much if Wallace goes deep into the season. Colossal mistakes on both parts. That said, it moves Dez up a couple notches. While he's still got a way to go, this is the year Dez becomes 'the guy' in Dallas, with Miles moving to the lesser spotlighted role. Meanwhile, if Mike or Dwayne bother showing, they'd be somewhere in this area.

7) Brandon Marshall - I'm gonna take a deep breath and say this: if Cutler and Marshall can even get to 80% of where they were in Denver, Marshall will be a Top 3 receiver. However, I think they're only gonna get to about 60-70%, because there's going to be a lot of forcing, and still a horrid line for Cutty, so he drops here.
'What. In. The. Eff. Does. A. Guy. Got. To. Do. To. Get. Paid?'

8) Wes Welker * YES, IF IT'S A PPR, WES WELKER MOVES UP A BUNCH LIKE ALWAYS. - Still not sure why New England won't pay him, but Wes hits me as the kind of guy that makes that motivation to excel - and aside from the two TEs, Welker is going to far and away outperform all the other hands on that team. (Also, I expect Brandon Lloyd to disappear) And then he's gonna play for the Bears or Vikes next year.

9) Larry Fitzgerald - Maybe the best receiver in the game - even challenging CJ - but his quarterback situation is horrifying. Hor. I. Fy. Ing. That affects a guy's production when they're depending on 'passes'. He'll get his, but he's gonna have to do most of the work.

9)  Steve Johnson - Kinda spotty last year, but as I'm big on the Bills overall, I think Stevie rebounds and could crack the top 5 by year's end. Could. But if I'm being honest, I'd rather he not be my WR1 option just yet.

10) Victor Cruz - He's gonna have a little more trouble getting his salsa on this year, because guys have had a year to figure him out. Thankfully, he still has enough skill to get past that.

11) Eric Decker - I loved him last year, and really am having trouble determining if he or Demaryius ends up as Peyton's favorite son - but I got a gut feeling Decker gets a little more.  High on this list? Maybe...you'll be able to get him a lot later than a bunch of the names below, but I'm looking for value, and I'd LOVE having Decker at WR2, especially if he's sitting there down the line.

12 & 13) DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin- Might as well tie them together, because barring injury I see them finishing up with around the same fantasy production. And if either one left, I think it would hurt the other - as long as Philly can keep both guys on the field, you're looking at probably the best option at WR2 you can land in either case.

14) Greg Jennings - I expect good things and solid production from Jennings, like usual, and for the same logic I used for Jordy Nelson...I just don't see him being quite as impactful this year - and the fact that he's already not practicing or participating due to some form of lingering and ill-defined concussion worries me. Enough to drop him way down the list...

 15) Steve Smith - Started out hot last year and had his best season since 2008 - that should continue as Brandon LaFell continues to develop into a solid #2 option, giving Steve more opportunity than he's had in a few years - early chemistry with Cam didn't hurt either.

16) Percy Harvin - So Percy started getting a little snitty in the offseason - I would too if I was still on the Vikes. However, he's the best thing going, and even with opposing Ds knowing that, he's going to be lethal....might be slow out of the blocks, but once AD is close to full speed, and Jerome Simpson comes back from his herbal vacation, things should be opening up for Percy.

17) .Demaryius Thomas - While admitting that you never learned your routes before might not be the most endearing statement, from all accounts DT has taken Peyton's arrival seriously. That said, I think Decker outshines him.
Drew Pearson. It took a car crash to take
take him out of the game. You get what
we're saying, Miles? Dez? Ladies.

18) Miles Austin - The fact that he's already been hurt in training camp bodes poorly for a healthy year out of Miles. A good WR2 option who's likely lost value due to the injuries, that's where I'd take him, but not as my #1 guy this year.

19) Pierre Garcon - Pierre Garcon was seemingly the only guy trying most weeks last year on Indy, and while Washington has a long way to go, he's made a significant upgrade in surrounding talent and doesn't really have much competition to be the #1 guy there. I think he fast becomes RG3's best buddy and it'll reflect in the fantasy stats.

20) Antonio Brown - Who got a nice fat contract so Pittsburgh could tell Mike Wallace to go eff himself. Whatever works! That said, if Brown does have to carry the load for that corps, it's going to be easier to account for him. If and when Wallace shows up, Antonio's job becomes easier. If he doesn't show, Brown's still the best thing going for Fat Be

21) Anquan Boldin - I've seen a lot of rankings of Torrey Smith over Anquan. I'm not sure why, because Anquan is still a far more consistent receiver than Smith. I think a Ravens receiver belongs on the Top 25, and while Boldin's consistency has been spotty the last couple of years, he's still the prime directive here until somebody proves differently.

22) Denarius Moore - Maybe Carson Palmer won't be so 'meh' this year, and Denarius can vault upwards. I don't see that as likely, so this is as high as he goes.
Or possibly Jerry comes out of retirement
just to make Randy cry on the way out the door.

23) Malcom Floyd - I get that Norv wants Bob Meachem to be 'the guy' this year, but there's a couple hurdles there: 1) Meachem wasn't 'the guy' at New Orleans, ever, and 2) Floyd knows this offense, and his QB, entirely more thoroughly. Meachem might have more raw talent (if that's a measurable), but I don't think it's enough to eclipse Floyd this year, his chance to shine with VJ out of the way.

24) Marques Colston - The Saints are going to continue to throw a lot, and Marques is still the best WR option on the team, but he's really more like a #3 behind Graham and Sproles. I won't draft him, unless he dropped so far it was impossible not to.

25) Michael Crabtree/Mario Manningham  - One of these two guys is going to emerge as the leader on the 9ers, but it's way too soon to call that. Again, both these guys (and maybe Moss) are WR2 fantasy receivers at best, and they've flooded the position so much it's going to be hard for any one flanker to stand out.

Here's a little additional bit I'm throwing in just for the receivers section - because there's a million of them.

I'm Avoiding: 

Vincent Jackson - Going to Tampa was a cash grab, and VJ is going to miss Rivers more that Rivers is going to miss him.

Stop. Getting. Arrested. You. Moron.
Kenny Britt - Chris Johnson should give Britt a portion of his game check every week from here on out for making sure all the attention gets diverted away from him. Healthy or not, Britt has quickly turned into the league's most outstanding active sh*thead. In fact, how nobody has trademarked the name 'Complete Britthead' for use in tee shirts is beyond me.

Seattle  - All of them, at least for drafting purposes. Until there's some order set there - and at the QB position first - that's a well of dirty poison. Maybe this'll change when they have less than a dozen receivers at camp....but considering TO and Braylon are reportedly leading the pack so far, I doubt it.

I'm Keeping an Eye On:

Randall Cobb and his new incorporation into Green Bay's Tecmo Offense, All the other Raiders receivers in case Carson gets some mojo back, Brian Quick in case Bradford gets healthy, and Steve Breaston and Jon Baldwin, in lieu of Dwayne Bowe getting his head out of his keester. Might as well throw LaFell on that list for the heck of it...and Vincent Brown.

On Deck for Thursday: The Ever-Lovin' Tight Ends!


Your complaints about these unjust rankings will be easier communicated when you follow @AmazingMattyP on the Twitter

In fact, follow all the ReclinerQB crew - they're good people and may listen to your complaints!




Tuesday, August 14, 2012

The 25: Quarterbacks

by Matt Prendergast

MORE LIST! Yay for hackneyed formats!  As you may have garnered, here's the best fantasy arms for your drafting dollar, as I see it for 2012 - and please note, I've got these in tiers, listed in the order I'd take them, but by and large any guy in any tier is capable of sliding up or down a couple notches. So apply as you see fit, now let's go!

The Top Trio 
Also Decreed 'King of Mustaches'

Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady

And here, it's in that order, probably. Rodgers is the popular #1 pick, but you really can't go wrong with any of these guys. Except for that point where you kill a first round pick on acquiring them, because when you do that, you've made a mistake....but hey, do what you like, nobody's judging! Just note, when you do drop that first pick on an arm, you better damn well know how you're going to assemble the rest of the fantasy team around him.

4 to 10 - Great Production/Affordable Price

Matt Stafford, Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Cam Newton, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Michael Vick

Stafford - Let's state this clearly: if you can get Matt Stafford in the late third round, you should probably do that. Simply put: he has all the talent and potential of the top three guys, he just hasn't had early durability, and he plays on a prison squad. Assuming the Lions don't implode early, there's no reason why Matt Stafford can't eclipse any of the three kings, but all it takes is one solid hit, or a  internal team meltdown (and that's clearly a huge risk) to leave all that potential greatness scattered across the charred earth.

E. Manning - He's pretty stable and a winner - but you're going to get a couple depressing weeks in there. That's always going to happen with Eli on the Giants...same thing can be said about most quarterbacks, though, so it's really not much of of worry.

'This is temporary, I was still better on SNL and Cooper still
gets more chicks, E.'
Phil Rivers - Looked awful for most of last year. I'm prone to believe that was an aberration instead of a portent of things to come. The Chargers restocked the cupboards for Phil, and I actually believe losing Vincent Jackson helps both Rivers and the offense as a whole improve as they're forced to work without their recent safety net....if he comes out of the gate shoddy, you might want to worry, but PR seemed to be righting the ship by the end of last year, so whatever was in his head is hopefully in the rearview mirror going forward.

Cam Newton - I can't argue with how solid and great Cam came out of the gate - and he pressed hard until season's end. What I can worry about is the repeatability of that production - he's not surprising anybody this year, and some teams are going to be able to clamp down on aspects of his game they weren't prepared for last year....but it's that 'account for Cam' prep that's going to create other opportunities this year. The question is: can the rest of the team step up and help him take advantage? My bet is 'more than you might think'.

The Original Manning - Probably the greatest quarterback to play in my lifetime, but we all know the question: can he even get back to 80% of 'Old Peyton'. It's a gut feeling, but Peyton has always hit me as a smarter guy, and a little less ego-driven - in other words, he's not grasping, he knows he's still got the gun. Worth the risk.

Tony Romo - Hate all you want, specific Dallas fan contingents, your team is a thousand times more capable of winning with him than without. From a fantasy standpoint, he's a decent start when healthy, and knows his weapons. Not as consistent as the top guys, that's why he's here. That said, I'd love to see Orton in there, but I don't think that's a legitimate threat.

Michael Vick  - Will drive you insane. But when he's good, he's very very good, and he's light years better as a quarterback post-joint than pre-incarcerated. I question whether he's ever really going to be able to shake that internal drive to go for it all (vintage Favre), but the Eagles and Vick should be smarter this year than last year's braggadocio-cursed misfire of a season. Now just get Mike to shut up and play.

11 to 17 - Caveat Emptor

Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, Matt Schaub, Ben Rothlisberger

Ryan - It's an intangible thing I have about Matt Ryan: I just don't believe he's as good as his stats, and that probably clouds my judgement....even with that said, he's in a good system, throwing to maybe the best tandem in the league based on raw talent, and still has The Immortal at tight end as an insurance policy. But I have him out of the top ten for my reasons, the primary one being I just don't see him possessing that intangible 'win at all costs' mentality.

'This offseason, I either saw Phish eleven times or
built some sort of bomb....it's all kinda blurry'
Fitzpatrick - Sometimes I think this guy might be legally insane, just by the look in his eyes. Consistency problems abound with Fitz, but some of that might justifiably be placed on inconsistent supporting casts. That said, they outperformed the first half of last year, then when things normalized, Fitz took a lot of heat because he suddenly wasn't playing out of his ass on a weekly basis.  Temper your expectations there, Buffalo. Improvements in key facets across the team - especially on defense - should help establish a better tradition of consistency, and that will help Fitzpatrick tremendously.

Joe Flacco - I want Joe Flacco to be a better fantasy QB option, but all the hype in the world doesn't make it so. Until he puts up consistent passing stats in fantasy play, he'll always remain a middle-of-the-road guy. Not gonna kill you, but not likely going to make the critical difference in your match-ups.

Cutty! - As many statements as Brian Urlacher or whoever wants to make, the Bears haven't clearly improved their offensive line, and that's really Jay Cutler's biggest issue. Brandon Marshall might be the greatest Chicago pick up since, well, Cutler, but that could easily devolve into a two-man show if anything happens to Forte, and that's easier to defend. JC still has all the skills to be elite, but a 'we'll see' attitude has to be firmly in mind if putting your fantasy season on his shoulders.

Matt Schaub - Better-than-average talent, but durability concerns throughout the Texans passing game with Schaub, Andre and Owen forced the Texans to become run-first, and that turned out to be terrific. TJ Yates helmed that team to the playoffs, which should be a good indicator that maybe it's become the system more than the players. Still, I like the guy when he's upright.

Ben Rothlisberger - A winning leader, but never the best fantasy option - and with Mike Wallace pretty well dooming his season whether he plays or not, Big Head Ben is without his best fantasy production option.

17 to Infinity and Beyond- Fantasy QB By Committee

Almost Everybody Else

Upsides and downsides abound for all the other QB options out there, but these guys are not reliable starting caliber. Now, that said, there's potential in here, so take a run at maybe one of these guys as a QB2, especially if you've landed on one of the lower-tier number one options above:

Carson Palmer - Have three guys' careers ever so clearly relied upon each others as much as Palmer, OchoJohnsonCinco and TJ Houshmanzadeh's have? None of these guys have been anything but a shadow of their former selves since separating. That said, Palmer isn't losing his gig, and he's got terrific options in Oakland, it's just that, well, so far he seems very, um, 'meh'.

Dalton's Key To Success: An unyielding weights program
Andy Dalton - Just need to see more from the Bengals and Dalton personally. Overplayed his expectations last year, but I worry there's not enough around him to support significant improvement in Year 2.

RG3 and Andy Luck - Dynasty League? You betcha. 'Cam Newton' repeat? Unlikely....but if one of them does come close, I'd bet on the more versatile Griffin. That said, I wouldn't touch either guy in a redraft.

Matt Cassell - The Chiefs built better weaponry in the ancillary regiions and bring a lot of big guns back from the IR this year. I don't think Cassell is anything better than average, but there's a nice benefit to working within a machine, and he may turn out to be surprising.

Christian Ponder - I liked everything I saw in Ponder last year except for the Vikings around him. Long term, I think he's going to be terrific, but it still feels too soon - considering AD's injury and Simpson's suspension, to expect consistent fantasy points out of Christian this year - but stranger things have happened,  so I wouldn't hate having him on the bench a couple weeks just to see what shakes out.

I really wanted Matt Flynn in here somewhere, but since he apparently hasn't beaten out Tavaris Jackson yet, he's getting thrown in the blargh pile with Sanchez, Bradford, Alex Smith and Josh Freeman. Note: ANY ONE OF THESE GUYS MIGHT EXPLODE, but I just can't draft on 'maybe'. Eh, I still might take a flyer on Flynn over Ponder, but at that point it's just grasping.

2011 Season Highlight
Number 1000  
Blaine Gabbert - What Jaguars' football I saw last year (which, granted, wasn't much, as one generally needs to have highlights to show up on RedZone), showed me that apparently Jacksonville drafted an American Idol contestant and mistakenly listed him as a QB. DO NOT WANT.



For Wednesday - The 25: Wide Receivers



Your complaints about these unjust rankings will be easier communicated when you follow @AmazingMattyP on the Twitter

In fact, follow all the ReclinerQB crew - they're good people and may listen to your complaints!

Monday, August 13, 2012

The 25: Running Backs

by Matt Prendergast

Hey kids! You know how everybody and their uncle that plays fantasy football (and that includes Michael Fabiano) likes to give you helpful lists? US TOO! Because you deserve nice things.... as space and attention spans demand brevity....here's ReclinerQB.com's  25 top fantasy RBs, sokit up into handy tiers (and in order of listing), and as always, this is my opinion, so shut it.

THE TOP TRIO:

Arian Foster, Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy

Or get yourself one of these. Fun at parties, too!
You already know this. More precisely, if you don't already know this, just hand your league fees to a baboon and let him attend your draft for you - he'll do just as well, and your league members probably won't notice the difference. Nearly every single authority I've seen thus far puts Foster well ahead of the pack - and he deserves that with his pure performance over the past two seasons....but because I'm a paranoid who can't get over taking LT with the first pick the year the wheels came off, I wouldn't take him first overall - I'd take Rice, just from a gut feeling that he still hasn't come close to his peak, and Shady McCoy is never going to repeat last year's output. However, I am sometimes an idiot, so if you have the first overall, you should probably just grab Foster. Regardless, outside of injury, you can't go wrong spending a top three big on any of these guys - they all have tremendous work ethic, heart, and pretty healthy opinions of their teams...which is critical. Also, their teams have clearly built them in as key cogs as opposed to 'saviors when everything else doesn't work out (see: MJD).

4 to 15 - The Semi-Questionables: 

Matt Forte,  Marshawn Lynch, Darren McFadden, Maurice Jones-Drew, DeMarco Murray, Ryan Matthews, Fred Jackson, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Michael Turner, Write-In: Trent Richardson

I would have confidently had a top 5 had two things not gone down; The Bears dicking around with Forte for two straight years in the contract arena, and Marshawn Lynchburg Lemonading himself into yet another apology press conference. But because those things did actually happen, now I gots the questions. And those questions in order of operations:

Forte - Honest to god, love the guy, but is he really going to still grind out the effort for a team that begrudging caved in and paid him his dues? I think he will, but it wouldn't surprise me if his effort drops a smidge.

Lynch - Some folks might think this is high - and if he's suspended, it most certainly is, but with all his idiocy, Marshawn runs like a goddamned bull on meth on his good days, and with both QB and WR Rotissierie Jamborees happening out in SEA (and will continue to the entire year), it favors a solid lean on the running game, and honestly, there's nobody else there yet that's done anything to take Beashhht Mode's carries away except Marshawn himself. NOTE: If Marshawn is suspended for three or four games, don't touch him until the seventh round.

Darren McFadden - is a terrific running back, one who's shown that early doubters could stick it. And he doesn't have the Michael Bush distraction looming over him constantly. Injury prone? Who isn't anymore...but that's the knock on DMac, and it's a concern. If you assume you're not going to have him for three-to-four weeks and plan your team around that, then you've got an ace for all the weeks he is there....and what if - just what if -  he doesn't get injured?

MJD - Well, he's still not at camp. And his team still blows, and blows hard. That said, he'll eventually show, and the missed camp time won't hurt him nearly as much as JESUS H BLAINE GABBERT STILL HAS A STARTING NFL JOB.

DeMarco Murray - I love what I've seen so far from DeMarco, there's just not enough data assembled yet to push him higher. That said, I think he has all the potential in the world to finish in the Top 3 at his position. I could say that about most of these guys, since they're all starting running backs in the National Football League, but in this case, I'd actually mean it.
The Official 2012 Ryan-Mathews-Themed Chargers Team Bus

Ryan Matthews - The Chargers have declared they're all in on the new LT! If he can finish a whole season, assuming he gets to it first. Bringing in Ronnie Brown and Jackie Battle doesn't show me their strong confidence....he's got the talent, and this could be a gem, but it could easily melt down just as quickly. Updated right as Matthews went out for 4-6 weeks

Fred Jackson - Probably the most under-the-radar guy in this year's draft, like every year he's been in the game. Thankfully, he's coming back from a broken bone and not an ACL/MCL/DUI....Spiller started to step up in his place, but not enough to really challenge for Fred's job at this point. Until that broken bone, Fred was on his way to obliterating all his previous seasons' output, and with the upgrades the Bills have made team-wide, there's little reason to think he can't jump right back in at that pace

Steven Jackson  - A little old, a lotta miles and guaranteed to miss at least two games a season when you could really use him - but he's got GREAT coaching this year with Fisher, and when he's on the field, he's a truck that stays in the passing lane. I always bet on the RB who takes his cues from the NFL's Greatest Active Mustache.

Frank Gore - A lot of things happening out in SF, and Frank's role is maybe getting muddled....they brought in Brandon Jacobs to use him, and Kendall Hunter is going to see more work. That said, last year was the second time in his career Frank did all sixteen weeks, and ended up with his second best production year since 2006. Jacobs and Hunter might spell our hero a bit, but unless he breaks down, nobody's replacing him.

There will be a new collectible jersey
issued for each T-Rich professional injury!
Michael Turner - Love the guy, there aren't many harder workers, but facts are facts: He's got a TON of road miles on him in the last four years, and the Falcons are moving quickly to a pass-first mentality. His stats have held pretty firm, but sometimes I can't shake that 'wrong side of 30' feeling, combined with my belief that he'll get drafted way too high on name-recognition alone. He's a back-end 2nd round guy at best; he'll go higher.

Trent Richardson (Maybe) - In what's becoming an annual tradition for the Browns, their savior went down before the shooting started....maybe. Trent Richardson went to get his knee cut-on before the first preseason game, as per schedule....however, in a surprising turn of events, he says he's gonna be back Week One. Here's the deal: there's NOBODY to compete with him, and even with no legs he'd be the best workhorse the Browns can ride for awhile....so I've inserted him here, high up in the clouds, because there has to be hope.

15 to 25- Good Luck and God Speed: If these guys are your #1 RB, I hope you got Rodgers.

Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Darren Sproles, Isaac Redman,  Ahmad Bradshaw, Reggie Bush, Ryan Matthews, LeGarrette Blount/Doug Martin, Shonn Greene, Beanie Wells/Ryan Williams, TIE AT 24: Denver and Washington and Carolina Backfield Participants, 

Jamaal Charles - Coming back from a nasty knee injury (that he's had a year to recover from), and now purportedly competing with Peyton Hillis (who's had one terrific year, followed by a descent into madness). Let's remember this: Jamaal Charles has never been alone in that backfield, and he's still been electric. Hillis will gobble some short-yardage TDs, which is fine since Jamaal like to take them in from way past the three-point line. You might even be able to grab him in the third round, but I wouldn't wait for that.

Moneybags Johnson - CJ2K showed some signs later in last season that he was regaining his form - THAT HE SHOULDN'T HAVE LOST. He held out, played horribly ('not his fault', right?), and directly caused Matt Forte and Ray Rice a lot of heartburn this offseason. Also, the offense around him is kind of a total mess right about now. That said, it's hard to argue against the raw talent - guy could easily outperform even his best season, but I just don't trust his nickel head.

AD - Still in the middle of recovering? Probably. Horrendous off-season? You bet. But Adrian has always come across as a stand-up guy, and one of the hardest workers in the league. But that injury was nasty, especially considering his style, and it happened in week 16. Even if he somehow starts the season, the Vikes can't possibly be stupid enough to full-workload him for quite some time...this might be a waste of a season, but I still can't bet against him as the best RB2 you could draft and store until the second half of the fantasy year.

Darren Sproles - I love Darren Sproles: exciting and unpredictable, he can hurt you in a thousand variations. However, the Saints are still using Pierre and Ingram regularly, and I hate that.

Eff it. Just Draft Priest Holmes. It Could Happen.
Isaac Redman - Not enough data assembled thus far, and wouldn't be starting if Mendie wasn't hurt. That said: a steal for your #2 or 3 RB, assuming he's still there past the third round. I wouldn't take the chance higher. Well, I might, but I do questionable things.

Ahmad Bradshaw - I will never draft Ahmad Bradshaw, I don't find him durable, nor do I find him particularly spectacular in that offense, ever. Do you feel differently? Super! Move him way up on this list, that's your choice. However, I can't deny he's got some value, I just don't like him on my team. AMERICA!

Reggie Bush - See above

Ryan Matthews - who, upon my first draft of this article less than twelve hours ago, was up in the top ten, has promptly proven to be a china doll wrapped in rice paper by sustaining a broken clavicle on the first play of the first preseason game against the Packers. Tremendous efforting, son. He's out four to six, which means he's probably back in week two or four....and I doubt he's the only truck driver anymore....cue up Ronnie Brown. That said, assuming Matthews makes it onto the field without shattering his knee on an airborne Dixie cup, or permanently blinding himself by looking directly at a camera flash, he's still going to be an impact player down the road, and has now decreased in value tremendously. If he's decreased enough in your league, enough to drop significantly, grab him when you can and stow him on the bench.

Tampa Bay Starting Running Back - The best thing that could happen to increase the fantasy draft value of either LeGarrette Blount or Doug Martin is a season-long injury to the other one. Instead, we're gonna see a time-share, or worse. Can't Truss It.

Shonn Greene - I understand all the Jets' promises about focusing on grinding it out and emphasizing the running game first. That's why they traded for Tebow. On another team, Greene might be able to show something special, or he may possibly have already disappeared.

Beanie Wells/Ryan Williams - See the TB post two back. I think Ryan Williams, if healthy, takes that job and is the better back for Arizona....but that team doesn't even have a quarterback settled yet, so the RB situation is a lot lower on the 'figure this out' pole. Beyond that, Beanie's been pretty decent when his wheels are on the ground, so your best situation is a time share for quite some time, and that can't be relied on in fantasty.

Denver/Washington/Carolina Committees For The Furtherance of Football Gains Through Applied Running Theory and Application - There's no clear-cut 'better guy' in any of these towns, but they can all run pretty good using an assortment of tools. Okay, maybe McGahee is above the pack in Broncoland, but how long is that going to hold up? Trust no one, and take DeAngelo, Willis, Roy, Hightower, Stewart, and Hillman at your own risk. Now, based on one preseason game, maybe McGahee has got more yips than I'm thinking, but I still don't trust it.


'Wait, I just signed who?'
Missing the cut, but keep a preseason eye on: Benjarvis on the Bengals (because 'who knows'?), Ben Tate, If the Packers Pick One Guy to Run With - and then choose to run (not likely), Critical injuries to any of the aforementioned committee-fields vaulting one guy up several spots. Daniel Thomas in Year Two. Rashad Jennings. Detroit Sorting Out That Mess Eventually, and Stevan Ridley - Has skills, and Pats RBs are prone to scoring on short yardage pretty often. What they're not prone to: yards and consistent production.


* Wild Card - I'd watch week three of the preseason to see how Cedric 'Drunk Boat' Benson fits into Green Bay's non-running scheme.....because if they are going to switch things up and run some more, he may turn out to be a mid-to-late round gem, particularly in points-only leagues, because I still don't see a lot of yards coming out of that backfield....




Tomorrow: The Quarterbacks......


Your complaints about these unjust rankings will be easier communicated when you follow @AmazingMattyP on the Twitter

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Friday, August 10, 2012

The Fantasy Football Heroes You Deserve...

An interview with The Fantasy Football Guys, Kevin Moore and Lyle Konkiel - by Matt Prendergast

This time of year, I'm often besieged by lot of folks who come up to me and ask 'Matt, how do you know so many things about fantasy football?' It's at this point that I know two things: 1) They clearly haven't been following my success rates in fantasy play the last two years, and 2) They still don't know about TFFG.

The truth is, the first couple of years of this hobby, I stumbled about at drafts like the suckers I try to lure in today; my first draft consisted of first and second round Wide Receiver picks, and I may very well have drafted a tight end who had retired a season previous....ah, the salad days. But then iTunes came around, and with that, the Podcast revolution. And in search for higher learning, I tried all the big names: ESPN, CBS Sports, the NFL themselves...and while they all had plusses and minuses, I still felt lacking...so I clicked on a link for 'The Fantasy Football Guys', a homebrewed 'cast by two fellas from the Philly area with no big-time network endorsements, recording out of one dude's basement.

And then I really started learning this sport.

----------------------------------------------------------------

It was the year 2000, and in a back room of a bank in beautiful Delaware, two veteran web programmers and hardcore Eagles fans with nothing but mountains of code to write and each other to entertain themselves started talking football...and more football, specifically their mutual love of the fantasy side of the game.

iTunes don't lie, son
Fast forward a bit down the road, and The Fantasy Football Guys podcast was born, fueled on craft beers, blind fury, and most importantly, the ever-elusive combination of intelligent opinion seamlessly blended with a real sense of humor - sure, some of it may be rightfully branded as 'locker-room', or even 'juvenile', don't dare take that as dismissive: These are guy's guys, and for an hour every week, for the past seven years they've invited us to hang out.

And hang out we have...proof positive: without fail, this indie podcast is continually ranked in the iTunes Top Ten for fantasy football podcasts - hell, under all 'sports podcasts' in general. Don't believe me? Take a look at the proof over to the left. That's from this week - Monday, June 30 to be precise. We're still a month away from the season, and that's episode two of the new year....and check out the hoity-toity neighborhood.

Having the good fortune to become a minor part of the sharp-witted and fantasy-educated forum community @TFFG.com over the years, I've had the good fortune to get to know The Fantasy Football Guys, Lyle Konkiel and Kevin Moore, a little bit here and there - they still work their day jobs, and still crank this thing out weekly during the season pretty much solely for the love of the hobby.

But enough of my opinion and rambling...here's the fellas, in their own words, along with plenty of awkward pauses and 'ums' from my idiot head - initially I was just gonna transcribe it, but it's unarguably better in their own voices:

(And in the interest of full disclosure, I am horrible at audio editing.....)

THE STATISTICS

In which we cover show history, statistics, podcast theory and the magical world of iTunes, the bodings of the future including the new YouTube Channel....and briefly explore the magical first meeting of our heroes....We'll call this: A New Hope

Thoughts on a Corporate Future?

THE FANTASY FOOTBALL STUFF - Or why you're actually here.....

Value Based Drafting vs. The Fantasy Football Guys 'Magic Formula' - If you listen to nothing else, listen to this one.

On The Topic of  Flyers and Sleepers...

Advanced Theory on the Future of the Stud Running Back

Common Mistakes for New Fantasy Players or: How I Stopped Taking The Bears D In the 4th

Lyle, TheFantasyFootballGirl, Kevin - Yes, there's a FFGirl
THE FANTASY YEAR AHEAD - Some Theoretical thoughts on the upcoming season...

First the possible letdowns: Let The Buyer Beware...

Any entire 2012 teams they'd avoid?

How would one screw over the other if they controlled one position on his roster the week they went head to head?

And finally, if either could cherry-pick one player off an NFL roster and place them on their beloved Philadellphis  - a DreamEagle, per se....who would that be?


The Fantasy Football Guys podcast is available at iTunes and via many many podcast aggregator apps worldwide. To listen live, tune in on Wednesdays at 8 PM EST on Livestream, and be sure to visit TFFG.com (don't forget the Forums!)  as well as the new YouTube channel.


Oh, and while you're busy clicking all those buttons, how about you subscribe to @AmazingMattyP on the Twittery-twitter? He needs the validation.

In fact, follow all the ReclinerQB crew - they're good people and deserve nice things!