Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Dos and Don'ts of Fantasy Football

By:  Zach Jacobson

Fantasy football is all about managing your team correctly.  You can't hope to win your league if you don't do your research before the draft, or stay active during the season.  Hopefully this list of what to do--or more importantly, what not to do--will give you a fighting chance against your opponents.


Do...
  • ...study!  Do your homework.  Nothing is worse than the guy that shows up half-drunk with a 3-month old fantasy magazine in hand.  You need to know what your doing--bring cheat sheets, rankings, everything.  It's the difference between drafting sleeper Jacoby Ford in the mid-to-late rounds, or drafting retired Randy Moss.  
  • ...try to build your team around running backs.  Usually running backs give the most value in fantasy football, along with the most potential to put up big fantasy points.  You'll want at least one stud running back, preferably more.
  • ...know your league rules.  This helps if your commissioner lays out a "constitution" of sorts, just something to show your league's specific rule variations.  I've gone into what I thought was a standard draft before, only to discover coming out that it was a PPR league (Point Per Reception).  Knowing the rules will lead you to draft differently.
  • ...work the waiver wire.  During the season search for free agents, it's where championships are generally won.  Unless you have one helluva draft, you're going to need to seek out quality replacements eventually.
  • ...go to others for advice.  You're going to want objective opinions before you pull the trigger on a trade, or before you make a move that would seriously impact your team.  This could be something as easy as asking a friend to glance at your team.  Me?  I like to go visit TFFG forums for input.  It's a great community that's overflowing with members ready to help out.

Don't...
  • ...share your rankings with other drafters.  Especially rankings that contain your list of sleepers.  You don't want a league-mate grabbing your breakout running back in round 11.
  • ...overdraft players.  What I mean by this is, if you have a favorite sleeper, and you know that he'll be there in round 12, don't go out of your way earlier in the draft to get him...unless for some reason you know that another member will pick him.
  • ...base transactions off the first weeks of the season.  It means nothing if Andre Johnson has a bad week 1 and 2, he'll work it out.  You never want to trade or drop a stud because of a rough game or two.  You also never want to look too much into a quality performance by a low-ranked player, it could only last a week.
  • ...ever run away or abandon your team.  Don't be a poor sport just because you have a losing record.  This game we love is meant to be fun, don't take it too seriously.  You also affect other teams' records if you don't give your best week in and week out.

Don't forget to follow me on Twitter!  @Zatchj62
Or feel free to email me at msuhoopz62@att.net
 

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

2011 Sleeper Alert - Jacoby Ford

By:  Zach Jacobson

The past few years, Oakland has been full of wide receivers that were supposed to break out and perform.  But guess what?  I don't see Chaz Schilens or Louis Murphy racking up 1,000 yards anytime soon.  Hopefully Jacoby Ford doesn't fall into the category of mediocre Raider's receivers.  He hardly played the first half of 2010, and I first really took notice of him in week 9 vs. the Chiefs.  Ford finally became a blip on the fantasy football radar when he had a solid second part to the season.  

You could watch him for one play and know that Jacoby Ford is fast...really, really fast.  This guy makes even the fastest defensive backs in the league look slow.  With a sub-4.3 40-yard dash time, Ford is one of the speediest receivers in the leagues.  Quality route running can be learned, but no matter how hard someone trains, that kind of speed is natural...it's genetics, man.  Ford's explosiveness makes him not only a receiving threat, but also a small rushing threat as well, which translates into fantasy gold.  It's not often you see a wide receiver that only played half the season produce 155 rushing yards and 2 TDs.  He also had three 94+ yard return TDs last year, so it's an added plus if your fantasy football league rewards return yards, because he'll be worthy of starting every week.
 
From what I've heard, Jacoby has come back with a drive to get better this preseason.  Ford's been working hard with quarterback Jason Campbell this off-season to improve his receiving game, and his coach has nothing but high praise for him.  Here's Oakland Raider's head coach Hue Jackson on Jacoby Ford: 
  
Obviously Jacoby is going to become a household name because he has some very special ability.  He’s very good with the ball in his hands – he’s very good without the ball in his hands because he draws a lot of attention.  He’s just scratching the surface of what he can truly be.”
Jacoby is definitely not a possession receiver.  He'll never catch a large number of passes, but hopefully his pure speed allows him to transform into a quality deep threat...similar to Percy Harvin, DeSean Jackson, or the Carolina Steve Smith in his prime.  If you're looking for week-to-week production, Ford will probably be extremely inconsistent (that's what angers DeSean owners so much).  However, with his rushing and return ability there's a decent chance he'll get you a non-receiving touchdown multiple weeks.  I could easily see 1,000+ total yards (rushing and receiving) this year, and in the upcoming seasons I'd look for him to build on that number.

Don't forget to follow me on Twitter!  @Zatchj62 

Thursday, August 18, 2011

2011 Fantasy Football Overrated Players

 By: Zach Jacobson

This is a follow-up to my 2011 Fantasy Football Steals article charting what players are being under drafted so far.  However, this time around I'll be giving you a few of the more overrated players going into the 2011 fantasy season.  I'll be using ESPN's ADP (Average Draft Position) to show where players are normally going, along with how many players of the same position are going before them.

Running Backs

Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC:  This is largely a toss-up.  I have MJD ranked as my 15th running back in my Fantasy Football Rankings, but I've seen him ranked as high as 5th.  His knee isn't the only factor in his low rank.  Backup Rashad Jennings career 5.4 yards per carry (YPC) along with Jones-Drews' YPC decreasing when he gets a larger workload also were a big consideration for me.  I get that MJD only had 5 touchdowns last season, and that's probably bound to increase, but if he struggles like he did at the beginning of last year I see Jennings getting a larger portion of the carries.
ADP:  8.1 (RB 6)

Wide Receivers

Michael Crabtree, SF:  Let's start with the fact that Alex Smith can't throw, and Colin Kaepernick has proven absolutely nothing.  He was being drafted as a WR3 before this past week, and he may not even be ready to play on opening day!  Crabtree's been drafted too high his first two years in the league, and this year is no different.  I'm not calling Crabtree an NFL bust yet, but he's been riddled with injuries in his short career and he has a garbage work ethic.  These factors combined with the addition of Braylon Edwards makes Michael Crabtree overrated.
ADP:  134.2 (WR 47)

Kenny Britt, TEN:  Here's another guy that may not even play come week 1.  He's been arrested three times this off-season, and chances are that you'll end up drafting him and he'll get suspended.  He's a huge talent, there's no doubt about that, but he's also a huge risk.  Drafting Michael Crabtree may not be the worst thing (due to his low ADP), but Britt is being drafted as a WR2, which is way too high.  Kenny Britt a no-no in fantasy drafts.
ADP:  64.0 (WR 21)

Santana Moss:  Rex Grossman and John Beck.  Enough said.
ADP:  87.9 (WR 30) 

Don't forget to follow me on Twitter!  @Zatchj62
  

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

2011 Sleeper Alert - Vincent Brown

 By:  Zach Jacobson

The word sleeper is massively overused in the world of fantasy.  I'm sorry, but I don't consider Mario Manningham or Jimmy Graham a sleeper when they're being drafted behind Brandon Marshall and Vernon Davis, respectively.  A fantasy sleeper should simply be a player who flies near completely under the radar, a guy that you can pick up in the last couple rounds of your drafts, or a player who you can pick up off the waiver wire.
  
San Diego rookie receiver Vincent Brown falls into this category.  Legedu Naanee has left for the Panthers, and if Brown can beat out Patrick Crayton for the #3 wide receiver spot he has a shot at fantasy production.  The Chargers have a solid enough tandem at running back to take attention away from the electric passing game.  Even Naanee looked fantasy relevant off the arm of Philip Rivers last year, so Vincent Brown (a player who was widely considered NFL-ready going into the draft) should be able to.

He ran a 4.52 40-yard dash at his Pro Day, and his combine time was much worse.  Brown's definitely not fast by any means, and he's only 5'11'' weighing 187 pounds, but he's a very polished route runner and averaged almost 20 yards a catch in his final season at San Diego State University.

Brown has willingness to run the difficult routes through the middle, along with the toughness to put his body on the line.  Despite his lack of size and speed, he was still a 3rd round pick in the 2011 NFL draft.  This should tell you a lot about his other receiving traits.  Not even on the fantasy radar, you can probably pick Vincent Brown up sometime within the next few weeks, seeing that he's not being drafted in most leagues.

Don't forget to follow me on Twitter!  @Zatchj62

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

2011 Fantasy Rankings

By:  Zach Jacobson

Updated:  September 3rd
I'll try to update these rankings every day or two before the season starts to accommodate the changing position battles in the NFL.  Seeing that everybody's league settings don't match up with overall rankings, I'm going to do this position by position and put the players in tiers.



QB

Tier 1  
  • Aaron Rodgers, GB
  • Michael Vick, PHI
Tier 2
  • Drew Brees, NO
  • Philip Rivers, SD
  • Tom Brady, NE
  • Peyton Manning, IND
Tier 3
  • Matt Schaub, HOU
  • Tony Romo, DAL
  • Matt Ryan, ATL
Tier 4
  • Josh Freeman, TB
  • Matthew Stafford, DET
  • Eli Manning, NYG
  • Joe Flacco, BAL
  • Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
  • Sam Bradford, STL
  • Jay Cutler, CHI
Tier 5
  • Colt McCoy, CLE
  • Kevin Kolb, ARI
  • Kyle Orton, DEN
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF
Others 
  • Matt Cassel, KC
  • Jason Campbell, OAK
  • Mark Sanchez, NYJ
  • David Garrard, JAC
  • Chad Henne, MIA



RB

Tier 1
  • Adrian Peterson, MIN
  • Jamaal Charles, KC
  • Chris Johnson, TEN
  • Arian Foster, HOU 
  • Ray Rice, BAL
Tier 2
  • Rashard Mendenhall, PIT
  • LeSean McCoy, PHI
  • Michael Turner, ATL 
  • Matt Forte, CHI
Tier 3
  • Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC
  • Frank Gore, SF
  • Darren McFadden, OAK
  • Steven Jackson, STL
Tier 5
  • DeAngelo Williams, CAR
  • Peyton Hillis, CLE
Tier 6
  • LeGarrette Blount, TB
  • Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG 
  • Felix Jones, DAL
  • Shonn Greene, NYJ 
  • Jahvid Best, DET

Tier 6
  • Ryan Mathews, SD
  • Mark Ingram, NO
  • Ryan Grant, GB 
  • Knowshon Moreno, DEN
  • Beanie Wells, ARI  
Tier 7
  • Jonathan Stewart, CAR
  • Fred Jackson, BUF
  • BenJarvus Green-Ellis, NE
Tier 8
  • C.J. Spiller, BUF
  • Joseph Addai, IND
  • Cedric Benson, CIN
  • Reggie Bush, MIA
  • Marshawn Lynch, SEA  
  • James Starks, GB
  • Tim Hightower, WAS
  • Stevan Ridley, NE 
    Others
    • Brandon Jacobs, NYG
    • Daniel Thomas, MIA  
    • Roy Helu, WAS
    • Pierre Thomas, NO
    • Justin Forsett, SEA
    • Michael Bush, OAK
    • Mike Tolbert, SD
    • LaDainian Tomlinson, NYJ
    • Delone Carter, IND
    • DeMarco Murray, DAL
    • Thomas Jones, KC
    • Willis McGahee, DEN
    • Ronnie Brown, PHI
    • Kendall Hunter, SF



    WR

    Tier 1
    • Roddy White, ATL
    • Andre Johnson, HOU
    • Calvin Johnson, DET
    Tier 2
    • Hakeem Nicks, NYG
    • Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
    • Greg Jennings, GB
    • Mike Wallace, PIT
    • Vincent Jackson, SD
      Tier 3
      • Miles Austin, DAL
      • Reggie Wayne, IND
      • Dwayne Bowe, KC
      Tier 4
      • DeSean Jackson, PHI
      • Mike Williams, TB
      • Brandon Marshall, MIA 
      • Stevie Johnson, BUF
      Tier 5
      • Santonio Holmes, NYJ
      • Wes Welker, NE 
      • Brandon Lloyd, DEN
      • Jeremy Maclin, PHI
      • Dez Bryant, DAL
      • Austin Collie, IND 
      Tier 6  
      • Sidney Rice, SEA
      • Mario Manningham, NYG
      • Anquan Boldin, BAL
      • Percy Harvin, MIN
      • Julio Jones, ATL
      • Mike Thomas, JAC
      Tier 7
      • Marques Colston, NO
      • Chad Ochocinco, NE
      • Kenny Britt, TEN
      Tier 8
      • Steve Smith, CAR
      • Pierre Garcon, IND
      • Jacoby Ford, OAK
      • A.J. Green, CIN
      Others
      • Lance Moore, NO
      • Malcom Floyd, SD
      • Lee Evans, BAL
      • Mike Sims-Walker, STL 
      • Santana Moss, WAS
      • Robert Meachem, NO
      • Braylon Edwards, SF
      • Deion Branch, NE
      • Greg Little, CLE
      • Nate Burleson, DET
      • Roy E. Williams, CHI
      • Hines Ward, PIT
      • Davone Bess, MIA 
      • Johnny Knox, CHI
      • Plaxico Burress, NYJ
      • Michael Crabtree, SF
      • James Jones, GB
      • Arrelious Benn, TB
      • Jordy Nelson, GB



      TE

      Tier 1
      • Antonio Gates, SD
      • Jermichael Finley, GB 
      • Dallas Clark, IND
      • Jason Witten, DAL
      Tier 2
      • Jimmy Graham, NO
      • Vernon Davis, SF
      • Owen Daniels, HOU
      • Kellen Winslow, TB
      • Brandon Pettigrew, DET
      • Mercedes Lewis, JAC
      Tier 3
      • Rob Gronkowski, NE
      • Tony Gonzalez, ATL
      • Zach Miller, SEA 
      • Chris Cooley, WAS  
      • Greg Olsen, CAR

      So there ya' go, you have my rankings (minus the meaningless fantasy defenses and kickers).  Most people like to rank tiers by bunching players with upside together, or players they don't like in one tier.  I just split my rankings up into spots where the fantasy talent distinctly falls off.

      Don't forget to follow me on Twitter!  @Zatchj62
      Or feel free to email me at msuhoopz62@att.net

      Fantasy Handcuffs, When and Why?

      ~Zach Jacobson

      I recently came across a thread on my favorite fantasy football forum (The Fantasy Football Guys) asking about specific running backs and when-or even if-to draft their backup as a handcuff.
      Sure, drafting Anthony Dixon in the 12th round may seem like a great idea at the time, but you'll be regretting it if #1-#2 round pick Frank Gore misses little to no time.  And yes, if it's the last round and you want to take a flier, knock yourself out.  Hell I don't care if you draft punter Chris Kluwe.  Maybe the starting kicker goes down and he has to take over the role.  The bottom line is, you NEVER pick a handcuff before the last round or two unless he's a player that you would normally draft!
      Here's a quote from one of The Fantasy Football Guys' forum members on the topic of handcuffs (don't worry he's been notified on the quote):
      "By and large, I don't believe handcuffs are worth anything - if the guy behind 'the guy' in those situations was that good in the first place, there would be an RBBC situation.  That's sort of how those came about in the first place.....and it's a waste of a roster spot in the first place.
      I'd much rather take a flier on a rookie or a guy who always seemed to have potential in a new situation where he may have a chance to blow up."
       So I give some actual fantasy analysis, here's a list of running backs I would handcuff (BEFORE THE LAST ROUND)...out of the top 10 RBs, based off my pre-training camp top 150 fantasy rankings:

      1.  Arian Foster--Rank:  #3 Overall
           Handcuff:  Bent Tate--Rank:  #134 Overall
      2.  Jamaal Charles--Rank:  #4 Overall
           Handcuff:  Thomas Jones--Rank:  #117 Overall
      3.  Maurice Jones-Drew--Rank:  #7 Overall
           Handcuff:  Rashad Jennings--Rank:  #143 Overall

      Like I mentioned before, this is simply a list of running backs that I would handcuff before the last round of my draft.  Feel free to draft whomever you'd like in the final round.

      Follow me on Twitter:  @Zatchj62

      2011 Fantasy Football Steals


      By: Zach Jacobson

      With football season looming just around the corner, I'm here to guide you to players that could, quite frankly, lead you to the playoffs, or at the very least make your bench look nice.  I'll be using ESPN's ADP (Average Draft Position) to show where players are normally going, along with how many players of the same position are going before them.

      Quarterbacks

      Matt Stafford, DET:  He's going way too late on almost all fantasy platforms.  I get the "privilege" of watching the Lions play every week, and whenever Stafford is healthy he is phenomenal for still being somewhat of a rookie (only played in 13 games in two years).  If you extend those 13 games out to a full season, Stafford's projections show almost 3,500 yards and over 23 TDs.  That's by far good enough to be a fantasy backup, and gives him enough upside for you to feel safe taking Matthew and his glass shoulder in round 10.
      ADP:  116.4 (QB 17)

      Running Backs

      Ryan Grant, GB:  As a Packer's fan I may be a bit biased on this one, but even my rational side tells me to draft Grant in almost all my mock drafts.  I keep hearing talk off injury concerns, but last year he suffered his first major football related injury.  He did miss his first couple seasons as a pro, but that was the effect of his arm going through multiple champagne glasses and the tendons in his arm being shredded.  This chatter of him being in a committee with James Starks is hogwash, Grant is the clear-cut running back in Green Bay.  With Aaron Rodgers getting more respect from defensive coordinators as an elite QB, the running game should open up for Ryan Grant.
      ADP:  64.8 (RB 27) 
      Shane Vereen, NE:  This isn't so much of a steal, it's more of a, "Hey this guy is available in the last rounds of all drafts and maybe even off the waiver wire" kind of suggestion.  In 10 team leagues Vereen isn't even being drafted, so I don't see much risk to picking him up.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis doesn't exactly get my motor going, and Danny Woodhead is so small there's no way he gets an extreme amount of carries.  I really like Vereen's skill set and think he may be able to be your first RB off the bench late in the season, a spot that is well worth a last round pick.
      ADP:  170+ (RB 60)

      Wide Receivers

      Brandon Marshall:  He's being drafted in the 6th and 7th rounds, when really I'd feel comfortable, and maybe slightly uncertain, putting him in my #1 WR spot.  He's a low-end #1 for sure, but when Marshall's being drafted like a low-end #2 he's worth a spot on your roster.  The source of his fantasy woes last year were the lack of touchdowns (only 3), even though he was targeted 130+ times in 14 games.  Touchdowns are impossible to predict, which means his production is almost sure to rise in 2011.  Marshall's chemistry with his team and quarterback is only going to improve going into this year, and I can see him finishing as a top 10 WR.
      ADP:  63.5 (WR 22)


      Who Didn't Crack the List

      These are still guys that I really like, they just didn't make it onto the top few sleepers/steals.

      Austin Collie:  ADP:  73.0 (WR 27)
      Anquan Boldin:  ADP:  69.8 (WR 24)
      Rashad Jennings:  ADP:  143.6 (RB 53) 


      Follow Zach on Twitter @Zatchj62